Global oil prices surged above $100 per barrel on Thursday as escalating conflict in the Middle East heightened fears of prolonged disruptions to crude supplies and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, climbed 5.15% to $106.40 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 5.11% to $101.00 per barrel.
The gains pushed both benchmarks sharply higher as traders assessed the prospect of a prolonged supply shock stemming from the Iran war and growing attacks around key oil and shipping routes.
Brent reached its highest level since May, while WTI moved above $100 and remained there during Thursday trading.
The escalation has renewed concerns about the security of crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. Tensions have also intensified around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, where Iran-backed Houthis have attacked Saudi Arabia.
S&P Global Energy said Thursday that it no longer expects Middle East oil production to return to pre-war levels by the end of next year.
The research firm also dropped its previous assumption of a definitive end to the conflict and a return to normal conditions in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of 2027.
S&P Global now expects oil prices to remain elevated, in the $80-$100 per barrel range, through next year.
This is despite US President Donald Trump’s expectation of a rapid resolution to the conflict and a subsequent decline in energy prices.
“Prices right after this very important election on November 3rd will be plummeting. The war will be over very shortly after the election,” Trump said on Wednesday night.
The latest surge in oil prices presents a growing challenge for policymakers, businesses and consumers, as higher energy and transport costs risk feeding into broader inflation even as economic growth comes under pressure.
