Key Points
- Mass Withdrawals to Block RN: Over 180 candidates have withdrawn from the second round of the French parliamentary elections 2024 to prevent the far-right National Rally (RN) from securing an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
- Revival of the “Republican Front”: Political leaders, including Socialist Mayor Anne Hidalgo and President Emmanuel Macron, are urging a united front across centrist and left-wing parties to consolidate the anti-RN vote, reminiscent of the successful tactic used in 2002 to defeat Jean-Marie Le Pen.
- Political Divisions and Tactical Confusion: While Macron has prioritised blocking RN’s rise to power, there is confusion and disagreement within his camp regarding whether to support radical left-wing France Unbowed (LFI) candidates, highlighting internal divisions.
In a dramatic and unprecedented effort to block the far-right National Rally (RN) from gaining power, over 180 French candidates have withdrawn from the second round of parliamentary elections scheduled for this weekend.
This move, aimed at preventing the anti-immigrant, eurosceptic RN from winning an absolute majority, highlights the growing urgency among President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist allies and left-wing opponents to unite against Marine Le Pen’s party.
Tactical Withdrawals and the “Republican Front”
The first round of voting, held on June 30, saw RN emerge as a formidable contender, positioning itself well ahead of Macron’s centrist camp and a newly formed left-wing alliance.
Marine Le Pen’s party garnered more than 10.6 million votes, a significant achievement that sent shockwaves through the French political landscape.
Pollsters initially projected RN to secure between 250-300 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, potentially bringing them within striking distance of an outright majority of 289 seats.
However, these estimates have been challenged by strategic withdrawals and cross-party endorsements designed to consolidate the anti-RN vote.
The concept of a “republican front,” a tactic previously successful in 2002 when voters united to defeat Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine Le Pen’s father, has been revived. Anne Hidalgo, the Socialist Mayor of Paris, emphasised the importance of mobilising all forces to prevent RN from gaining a foothold in the government.
“The match is not over,” Hidalgo told France 2, urging her fellow citizens to rally against the far-right threat.
Macron’s Gambit and Political Manoeuvring
Macron’s decision to call for a snap election following a poor performance in the European polls last month has backfired, significantly boosting RN’s chances.
In response, Macron has prioritised blocking RN’s ascent, even suggesting support for candidates from Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s radical left-wing France Unbowed (LFI) if necessary.
At a closed-door meeting with ministers at the Elysee Palace, Macron made it clear that the top priority was to block RN from power, indicating a willingness to endorse LFI candidates to achieve this goal.
Despite the coordinated efforts, confusion persists regarding whether Macron’s allies should stand down in favour of LFI candidates. This uncertainty reflects the complexity and divisions within the anti-RN coalition.
Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has argued against supporting LFI, citing its extremism and its stance on international issues, including the Israel-Hamas conflict. Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire echoed these sentiments, stating, “No vote for the RN. But I refuse to vote for LFI.”
RN’s Response and the Prospect of “Cohabitation”
Marine Le Pen remains resolute, asserting that RN will only form a government if they secure a workable majority.
Le Pen’s strategy includes appointing her 28-year-old protégé Jordan Bardella as Prime Minister if they garner enough support, leading to a potential period of “cohabitation” with Macron, who intends to serve out his term until 2027. This cohabitation would create a tense and challenging political environment, as Macron and Bardella would need to navigate significant ideological differences to govern effectively.
Le Pen has also criticised Macron’s alleged plans to make key public sector appointments to thwart RN’s policies, describing such moves as an “administrative coup.”
While she did not provide evidence for these claims, Le Pen’s remarks highlight the contentious atmosphere surrounding the elections and the high stakes involved.
Implications and Future Projections
The ongoing political manoeuvres have significant implications for France’s governance. Analysts predict that the most likely outcome is a hung parliament, which could lead to policy paralysis, according to Reuters.
This scenario poses risks not only for domestic politics but also for France’s international standing, particularly as Macron is a prominent supporter of Ukraine amidst the Russian invasion. Financial markets have reacted with caution, showing muted gains as investors weigh the potential for a prolonged period of political instability.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal warned that an RN majority would be catastrophic, potentially jeopardising France’s preparations for hosting the 2024 Olympics and diminishing its international credibility.
Attal suggested that mainstream right, left, and centre parties could form ad hoc alliances to pass individual pieces of legislation in the new parliament, a stopgap measure to ensure governance in a fractured political landscape.
Xavier Bertrand, a senior member of the centre-right Republicans (LR) party, proposed the formation of a “provisional government” to run France until the next presidential election, AFP reports.
This idea underscores the urgency felt across the political spectrum to find a solution that prevents RN from implementing its controversial policies, which include cutting funding to the European Union and enforcing strict anti-migrant measures.
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Calls for Action from Public Figures
Prominent figures, including French Euro 2024 football star Jules Kounde, have publicly urged voters to block the far right.
Kounde expressed disappointment in the growing support for RN, emphasising the party’s divisive agenda and its threat to the values of unity and respect.
“Obviously, I was disappointed to see the direction our country is taking with a big level of support for a party that is against our values of unity and respect, and that wants to divide the French people,” Kounde said after France’s victory over Belgium in the Euro 2024 quarterfinals.
As France braces for the second round of elections, the political landscape remains volatile, with the outcome set to shape the country’s future trajectory. The concerted efforts to prevent a far-right victory underscore the high stakes involved in this critical electoral battle. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether the Republican front can successfully mobilise voters and prevent RN from achieving an unprecedented level of power in modern French history.