Bismarck Rewane, Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, has said Nigeria’s target of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2030 is unrealistic under current economic conditions.
Rewane made the remarks during an interview on Channels Television’s Business Morning programme, where he discussed rising food prices, inflationary pressures, GDP growth figures, and the country’s economic outlook.
Speaking on the federal government’s economic ambition, Rewane said while the target was ambitious, the pace of growth required to achieve it was unattainable. “The aspiration of Nigeria, as the President said it, is that we should have a $1 trillion economy by 2030. That’s not going to happen, but it’s good to aspire, it’s good to be ambitious,” he said.
According to him, Nigeria would need to sustain annual economic growth of about 15 per cent over the next few years to achieve the target.
“To achieve $1 trillion in the year 2030, you need to grow about 15 per cent a year for the next two or three years. That’s not going to happen,” Rewane stated.
GDP Growth Better
Rewane also commented on Nigeria’s latest Gross Domestic Product figures, which showed the economy expanded by 3.89% in the first quarter of 2026.
While acknowledging that the figure was lower than the 4.02% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, he explained that the slowdown was seasonal.
“Q4 is always the period in which you have the highest growth rate because of Christmas and festive spending,” he said.
He added that the latest growth figure remained significantly higher than the first quarter performance recorded in previous years.
“At 3.89%, Nigeria’s GDP growth rate is higher than the population growth rate, which means technically speaking, Nigeria should be better off,” Rewane explained.
The economist also identified oil refining as the fastest-growing sector of the economy, citing a growth rate of 37% driven largely by increased local refining activities. “If the GDP is growing at 4% and oil refining is growing at 37%, that’s a sector to be in,” he said.
He attributed the growth to increased production of aviation fuel, diesel, petrol, and cooking gas from local refineries.
Rewane also highlighted strong growth in the telecommunications sector, which expanded by 12.24%, describing it as “phenomenal.”
However, he noted that some sectors continued to struggle, including air transportation, which contracted by 7.62 per cent, alongside weaker growth in road transportation and trading.
Rising Food Prices Tied to Eid
Rewane further warned Nigerians to prepare for higher food prices amid the Eid-el-Kabir celebrations, pointing to increased costs of livestock and staple food items.
According to him, large rams were being sold for as high as N1.5 million, while some cows were priced at up to N3 million.
“There’s seasonality, there’s a festival period, and there’s also a shortage of protein generally speaking. Therefore, we should brace ourselves for a general increase in prices,” he said.
He listed recent increases in food prices, including tomatoes, onions, rice, and garri, while criticising claims that Nigerians could maintain a healthy diet on N1,500 daily.
“If you were to buy a healthy diet for N1,500, everybody would be unhealthy in this country. N1,500 cannot buy anything,” Rewane said.
The economist also suggested that political spending ahead of the 2027 elections could be contributing to increased consumer activity and rising demand for livestock. “This is political season, this is spending season, this is salary season,” he said.
