Rivers State, Nigeria’s third-largest oil-producing region, is on the edge of chaos as the feud between Governor Sim Fubara and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, is threatening critical oil infrastructure in the state. Oil giants like Shell, and even the federal government, raise concerns of disruptions to Nigeria’s already strained crude oil output.
The crisis shows no signs of abating, with Shell issuing urgent warnings to staff amid reports of politically motivated clashes and gunfire in areas like Elele, Ikwerre.
This originated from a Supreme Court ruling mandating Fubara to recognize all 30 elected members of the Rivers State House of Assembly, 27 of whom are loyal to Wike, while only three back the current governor. The decision has emboldened Wike’s camp, leaving Fubara’s supporters reeling and sparking violent reprisals, including a March 5 attack by unknown gunmen on Fubara’s youth supporters during a solidarity march in Elele.
This power struggle threatens to destabilize Rivers State’s governance. Last week, the Wike-aligned House of Assembly, led by Speaker Matthew Amaewhule, demanded that Fubara submit a fresh budget proposal. When the governor attempted to comply, he found himself locked out of the state parliament building by the 27 lawmakers loyal to Wike, who later accused him of failing to follow due process.
This standoff has fueled impeachment threats against Fubara, a move his opponents are aggressively pursuing.
Complicating matters, Fubara enjoys a close relationship with Rivers State Chief Justice Simeon Amadi, a potential obstacle to impeachment efforts.
In response, Wike’s allies have called on federal authorities to investigate Amadi for allegedly falsifying records, aiming to either pressure the judge or secure his removal. Analysts see this as a calculated bid to weaken Fubara’s defenses in the escalating political chess game.
The crisis has taken on an ethnic dimension, with the Ijaw community, Fubara’s ethnic group vowing to target oil facilities if the governor is ousted. As the first Ijaw governor in Rivers State history, Fubara’s leadership holds deep symbolic weight for his kinsmen, who view the impeachment push as an affront.
Their threats gained traction after Wike, now the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, dismissed the idea of pipeline bombings with characteristic defiance during a press conference, saying, “The moment I hear that, I say to hell! How dare you threaten a country?”
These warnings are not idle. Rivers State hosts Shell’s Nigerian headquarters and is a linchpin in the country’s oil sector, which accounts for over 80% of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings. Ethnic groups have a history of disrupting oil operations in the Niger Delta, and any escalation could derail President Bola Tinubu’s goal of stabilizing production at 2.2 million barrels per day in 2025.
Oil Industry Caught in the Crossfire
Shell, the largest oil major in Nigeria, has sounded the alarm, advising staff to exercise caution amid the unrest. The company is in the midst of a sensitive transition, finalizing the sale of its onshore arm, Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC), to the Renaissance Consortium. While the deal is complete, operational handovers remain ongoing, with a town hall meeting planned to address the next steps. “It is quite unfortunate,” an official lamented, noting the timing of the crisis as Shell shifts focus to deep offshore assets, a move driven partly by onshore instability and community disputes.
Energy expert Dan Kunle underscored the broader implications for Nigeria’s oil sector. With production already too low to fully supply the new Dangote refinery, Kunle warned, “We need harmony and peace for the industry to have growth. We cannot allow any escalation in Rivers and by extension the Niger Delta. The country needs every barrel it can get.”
Wike’s Influence vs. National Stability
President Tinubu has remained silent on the Rivers crisis, despite mounting calls to rein in Wike, a key ally who delivered the state to him in the last election amid allegations of violence and rigging. As FCT Minister, Wike has impressed Tinubu with his performance and remains a linchpin in the president’s 2027 re-election strategy, tasked with securing both Rivers State and Abuja.
Yet, analysts like columnist Jide Ojo argue that Wike’s unchecked ambition could backfire. “If Wike is not checked, he may end up being a liability to this administration, especially now that Nigeria is in dire need of oil to service its budget,” Ojo cautioned.
A government source revealed that National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu is quietly intervening, exploring ways to persuade Wike to abandon the impeachment push. However, Tinubu’s reluctance to sack Wike—despite public pressure—reflects the delicate balance between political loyalty and economic necessity. Wike’s role in fracturing the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) further cements his value to Tinubu’s camp.
A Nation at Risk
The Rivers State feud is more than a local power struggle, it’s a litmus test for Nigeria’s ability to safeguard its economic lifeline. Nigeria is already facing lower oil production, as it dropped 70,000bpd in February alone. With global oil prices also declining, this Rivers state crisis is just another obstacle threatening the country’s fiscal revenue.
