President Bola Ahmed Tinubu recorded almost 11 million votes in the APC presidential primaries, far more than the over 8 million votes he got during the 2023 presidential elections, raising key questions in the build-up to the 2027 elections.
Despite the difference four years makes, the president scoring above his national votes in an intra-party election raises relevant conversations ahead of the 2027 elections, especially with the polity heating up.
The 2023 results: a regionally concentrated victory
In 2023, President Tinubu dominated the South West and the North, with very few inroads in the South East
The 2023 election showed a clearly segmented voting pattern:
- Lagos: 572,606 votes
- Kano: 517,341 votes
- Katsina: 482,283 votes
- Kaduna: 399,293 votes
- Enugu: 4,772 votes
- Abia: 8,914 votes
- Oyo: 449,884 votes
- Osun: 343,945 votes
Tinubu’s strongest support was concentrated in the South-West and parts of the North-West, while the South-East and sections of the South-South delivered minimal support.
However, there has been massive changes evident in the 2027 APC presidential primaries especially in the South East
- In Enugu, the president scored 383,382 in the 2027 APC primaries compared to under 5,000 votes in the 2023 elections
- In Abia, his votes climbed from 8,914 during the 2023 elections to 161,005 in the APC primaries
- Bayelsa surged from 42,572 in the 2023 general elections to 227,192 in the APC primaries
- Akwa Ibom increased from 160,620 in the 2023 elections to 389,197 during the APC primaries
- Adamawa jumped from 182,881 to 644,149 in the APC Primaries
Key Questions Raised
The seeming difference between the president’s votes during the 2023 elections compared to the recent APC presidential primaries raises questions around the credibility of the electoral process in the primaries and what might play out in 2027.
Despite APC’s membership registration drive since 2023, the figure thrown up during the nationwide primaries of the party which has been marred by irregular counting has so far has been widely disputed by several party members and aspirants who insist, the party’s membership is clearly not up to the affirmed figures for several winners.
These contested figures seem to be a pretext for rhetoric that could be used in defending rigging when the 2027 general elections come around especially with regards the presidential elections.
All hands must therefore be on deck to ensure the sanctity of the electoral process is upheld in the 2027 general elections.
