Elon Musk has predicted that artificial intelligence could exceed the combined intelligence of all humans within the next five years.
Speaking in an interview with The Economist published on Thursday, Musk said AI would eventually outperform humans in nearly every task, with the exception of the uniquely human experience.
“I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in around five years. There really won’t be anything that AI can’t do better than humans, apart from being human, perhaps,” Musk said.
Despite his long-standing warnings about the risks posed by advanced AI, Musk expressed optimism that the technology’s most likely outcome would be an era of unprecedented abundance.
“The most likely outcome is an age of amazing abundance, where anyone can have anything they can think of,” he said, adding that while the prediction may sound far-fetched, “here we are in 2026, let’s see where we stand in 2036.” He said.
Musk acknowledged that AI and robotics still pose significant risks, including the possibility of catastrophic outcomes, but said the momentum behind their development has become too great for any individual or organisation to stop.
“I still think there’s risk associated with AI and robots. It’s not zero,” he said. “I can’t see any way to really stop this incredible momentum of AI and robots. Let’s enjoy the ride.”
Calls to Mitigate Potential AI Risks
Musk also estimates that AI could still carry a 10% to 20% chance of causing human extinction, although he said his outlook had become more philosophical.
To reduce potential risks, Musk called on leading AI companies to establish regular safety meetings, suggesting weekly or bi-weekly discussions where competitors could review new AI models before they are publicly released.
“The competitors can keep each other honest,” he said, arguing that AI developers are better positioned than governments to assess whether a new model presents a serious security threat.
Musk added that such collaboration should be implemented quickly, noting that AI breakthroughs are occurring at an extraordinary pace, with major announcements sometimes happening multiple times in a single day.
