Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company, Bismarck Rewane, says Nigeria’s economy is growing at a pace that is beginning to outstrip population growth, suggesting that Nigerians should be getting richer even though rising unemployment and weak wages continue to limit the impact of economic growth on household incomes.
Rewane said the country’s 4.43% real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 was significantly stronger than global growth and reflected a broad improvement in economic activity, particularly in non-oil sectors.
“4.43% is actually very good compared to where we were, we are growing at a rate, our rate of growth is twice the global growth rate,” he said.
The economist noted that the fastest-growing sector was oil refining, whose growth increased from 15.78% in the second quarter of 2025 to 43.94% in the corresponding quarter of 2026.
Rewane also pointed to strong performances in accommodation and food services, ICT, arts and entertainment, and waste management. ICT, he said, grew by 11.9% and has particularly strong linkages because growth in the sector supports fintech, financial services and other businesses.
GDP Growth Outstripping Population Growth Rate
Rewane warned that headline GDP growth does not automatically translate into higher living standards. Rewane however notes Nigeria’s 4.43% growth rate is now above its estimated 2% population growth rate, meaning output per person should theoretically be increasing.
“Technically speaking, it means that Nigerians are getting richer, should be getting richer because of the increase in output as far as increasing population.
“Today, what we are seeing is that we have grown by 4.4 percent,” he said. “We have grown and that growth rate has outstripped our population growth rate.”
Rewane said the disconnect between economic growth and household welfare can be seen in consumer behaviour, with Nigerians increasingly “down trading” — buying smaller quantities or switching to lower-quality products because of constrained purchasing power.
“Right now, we are seeing a situation where people are down trading. In other words, they are buying less in quantity and buying less in quality.” He said.
He also cited pension data as another indication of pressure on household finances. According to him, declining pension contributions alongside increased withdrawals suggest that more Nigerians are leaving formal employment or drawing on retirement savings to meet immediate financial needs.
“It tells you a story that, yes, you are having growth, but you are also having high unemployment,” Rewane said.
Need For Improved Employment Opportunities
Bismarck Rewane argued that the next phase of Nigeria’s economic expansion must therefore focus on employment, wages and productivity rather than GDP growth alone.
“We should be growing at a rate which is inclusive, which means it creates employment.We should be growing at a rate where wages, real wages, not illusionary wages, are high enough for people to have a living wage and can enjoy quality of life.
“We need investment, investment, investment,” he said, stressing that government investment alone would not be sufficient.
He identified sectors including gas, fertiliser, oil refining, cement and financial services as areas where Nigeria could exploit economies of scale and expand exports across West Africa under the African Continental Free Trade Area and ECOWAS framework.
Rewane also noted he expects consumer spending to remain relatively strong suggesting consumers may bring forward spending that would ordinarily occur during the December festive period, reflecting increased economic activity in the third quarter.
“Right now, we are going to be spending almost everything that we do in December, we’ll do in September,” he said.
