NewsNigeria after May 2023

Violent Conflict in Nigeria: An Analysis of President Tinubu’s First Year in Office

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s first year in office, from May 29, 2023, to May 29, 2024, has been marked by significant violent conflict across Nigeria. Data from Nextier’s Nigeria Violent Conflicts Database reveals complex patterns of violence with various conflict types and regional disparities.

This report examines the types, frequencies, and impacts of these conflicts, comparing them with the previous year to provide insights into trends and regional differences.

Across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, various forms of violent conflict were recorded. The total number of incidents stood at 1,095, resulting in 3,959 casualties and 2,691 kidnapping victims.

Key Statistics

In the past year, Nigeria experienced:

  • Total Incidents: 1,095
  • Total Casualties: 3,959 (comprising 3,444 deaths and 515 injuries)
  • Kidnapping Victims: 2,691

These figures represent a decline in incidents and casualties compared to the previous year (May 29, 2022, to May 28, 2023), which recorded:

  • 1,443 incidents
  • 4,877 casualties
  • 2,650 kidnapping victims

Comparison with Previous Year

Metric 2022-2023 2023-2024 Change
Incidents 1,443 1,095 -24%
Casualties 4,877 3,959 -19%
Kidnapping Victims 2,650 2,691 +2%

Regional Breakdown

The violent conflicts were not evenly distributed across Nigeria’s regions. Here are the key statistics for each region:

  • North West: 1,661 incidents, 757 casualties, and 346 kidnapping victims
  • North Central: 1,227 incidents, 1,516 casualties, and 270 kidnapping victims
  • North East: 479 incidents, 135 casualties, and 109 kidnapping victims

Other regions also faced significant violence but to a lesser extent:

  • South East: 140 incidents, 139 casualties, and 104 kidnapping victims
  • South South: 241 incidents, 60 casualties, and 143 kidnapping victims
  • South West: 211 incidents, 84 casualties, and 123 kidnapping victims
Region Incidents Casualties Kidnapping Victims
North West 1,661 757 346
North Central 1,227 1,516 270
North East 479 135 109
South East 140 139 104
South South 241 60 143
South West 211 84 123

Conflict Types

The conflicts were categorised into several types, each with distinct characteristics:

  • Banditry: The most prevalent type, with 308 incidents, 1,678 casualties, and 1,860 kidnapping victims.
  • Gunmen Attacks: These accounted for 357 incidents, 618 casualties, and 654 kidnapping victims.
  • Farmer-Herder Conflicts: Resulted in 95 incidents and 677 casualties but only 5 kidnapping victims.
  • Cult Clashes: Less frequent but still notable with 73 incidents and 157 casualties.
  • Kidnapping: Specifically classified incidents numbered 64, resulting in 68 casualties and 103 kidnapping victims.
  • Terrorism: Caused by groups like Boko Haram and ISWAP, leading to 56 incidents, 357 casualties, and 60 kidnapping victims.
Conflict Type Incidents Casualties Kidnapping Victims
Banditry 308 1,678 1,860
Gunmen Attacks 357 618 654
Farmer-Herder Conflicts 95 677 5
Cult Clashes 73 157 0
Kidnapping 64 68 103
Terrorism 56 357 60

Most Affected States and Local Government Areas (LGAs)

Top 10 States by Incidents:

  1. Ogun
  2. FCT (Federal Capital Territory)
  3. Katsina
  4. Rivers
  5. Imo
  6. Borno
  7. Zamfara
  8. Benue
  9. Kaduna
  10. Plateau

Top 10 States by Casualties:

  1. Rivers
  2. Niger
  3. Bauchi
  4. Sokoto
  5. Katsina
  6. Borno
  7. Kaduna
  8. Benue
  9. Zamfara
  10. Plateau

Top 10 LGAs by Incidents:

  1. Ukum (Benue)
  2. Abuja Municipal (FCT)
  3. Kajuru (Kaduna)
  4. Ningi (Bauchi)
  5. Chikun (Kaduna)
  6. Barkin Ladi (Plateau)
  7. Bwari (FCT)
  8. Birnin Gwari (Kaduna)
  9. Bokkos (Plateau)
  10. Mangu (Plateau)

Top 10 LGAs by Casualties:

  1. Tsafe (Zamfara)
  2. Kukawa (Borno)
  3. Birnin Gwari (Kaduna)
  4. Igabi (Kaduna)
  5. Ukum (Benue)
  6. Wase (Plateau)
  7. Barkin Ladi (Plateau)
  8. Maru (Zamfara)
  9. Bokkos (Plateau)
  10. Mangu (Plateau)

Top 10 LGAs by Kidnapping Victims:

  1. Anka (Zamfara)
  2. Mafa (Borno)
  3. Talata Mafara (Zamfara)
  4. Sabuwa (Katsina)
  5. Batsari (Katsina)
  6. Kachia (Kaduna)
  7. Bwari (FCT)
  8. Munya (Niger)
  9. Kajuru (Kaduna)
  10. Chikun (Kaduna)

Comparative Analysis by Conflict Type

Banditry:

  • Incidents: 308 (down from 447)
  • Casualties: 1,678 (down from 1,792)
  • Kidnapping Victims: 1,860 (down from 1,972)

Farmer-Herder Conflicts:

  • Incidents: 95 (up from 77)
  • Casualties: 677 (up from 559)
  • Kidnapping Victims: 5 (up from 2)

Gunmen Attacks:

  • Incidents: 357 (down from 407)
  • Casualties: 618 (down from 498)
  • Kidnapping Victims: 654 (down from 488)

Kidnapping:

  • Incidents: 64 (slightly down from 66)
  • Casualties: 68 (slightly down from 78)
  • Kidnapping Victims: 103 (up from 81)

Cult Clashes:

  • Incidents: 73 (down from 90)
  • Casualties: 157 (down from 187)

Terrorism:

  • Incidents: 56 (down from 87)
  • Casualties: 357 (down from 1,102)
  • Kidnapping Victims: 60 (down from 92)

President Tinubu’s first year in office saw a notable reduction in overall violent incidents and casualties, although kidnapping incidents slightly increased. The persistence of regional conflicts, especially in the North West and North Central regions, highlights the need for targeted interventions. Addressing the diverse and complex nature of these conflicts remains a significant challenge for the administration, requiring comprehensive strategies that consider the specific dynamics of each region.

Samuel Bolaji

Samuel Bolaji holds a Master of Letters in Publishing Studies from the University of Stirling, Scotland, United Kingdom, and a Bachelor of Arts in English from the University of Lagos, Nigeria. He is an experienced researcher, multimedia journalist, writer, and Editor. He is currently the Editor of Arbiterz.

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