People & Money

Obi Leads in Another Poll as Elections are Projected to Enter Run-Off

In another poll, Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) led the voting preferences among survey respondents. The poll which was the second poll conducted by Nextier, an Africa-focused consulting firm showed Obi to score 37% of the voters’ preference ahead of Atiku Abubakar of the PDP who had 27% of the voters’ choice, and Bola Tinubu of the APC with 24% of the voters’ preferences. Rabiu Kwankwaso came in a distant fourth with 6% of the voters’ choices. 

The poll was conducted on the 27th of January 2023, about 4 weeks away from the Presidential Elections scheduled to hold on February 25. The team surveyed 3,000 respondents, resulting in a 2% margin of error at a 95% confidence level. The sample accurately represented the age and gender demographics across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.  

From the poll, it was recorded that no party is likely to outrightly win the Presidential elections hence the likelihood of a runoff. The poll results showed that no candidate met the requirements for winning a Nigerian presidential election: receiving a majority of the votes and at least 25% of the vote in two-thirds of the states. Though Obi got the highest voters’ preferences, he was only able to poll 25% in about 23 states of the federation. 

Also Read: 2023 Elections: 40% of Rural Nigerians Will Vote for Peter Obi, Nextier Polls 

The poll was a face-to-face poll carried out only among holders of the Permanent Voters’ Card. Respondents were asked to choose their preferred party by selecting the party’s logo. Only one question, which polled their “favorability,” was based on the candidates’ names.

Summary of the Poll Result

It is anticipated that voter turnout in the 2023 election will increase compared to the 2019 election as 77% of respondents stated they plan to vote, with 63% confirming they will definitely cast their vote.

72% of the respondents had already made a choice for their preferred party, with 83% stating that their choice will not change before the election. It’s worth mentioning that the survey questionnaire displayed the party logos and names, rather than the candidates’ names or images.  

Among the candidates, Peter Obi has the highest net favorability of about 15%. He is followed by Atiku Abubakar at -5%, Bola Tinubu, at -17%, and Kwankwaso at -18%. Net favorability is determined by subtracting each candidate’s unfavourable rating from their favourable rating. LP also has a leading net favorability of 13%, followed by PDP with -2%, and APC with -16%.  

In the poll on voting intentions, LP tops with 37%, followed by PDP at 27%, APC at 24%, NNPP at 6%, and 5% of voters remain undecided. 

In the North West, APC led in voting intentions in Jigawa, Kaduna, and Zamfara, while the PDP led in Katsina, Kebbi, and Sokoto, with NNPP leading in Kano. In the North East, the results between APC and PDP were split, with APC leading in Adamawa, Borno, Gombe, and Yobe, and PDP in Taraba and Bauchi.

Also Read: 2023 Presidential Elections: The Man Who Wants Atiku to Win and Break Up Nigeria

In the North Central region, the poll projected LP to win in Benue, Taraba, and FCT while PDP was projected to win in Plateau and Niger, with APC projected to win in Kwara and Kogi. The poll projected LP to win in Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, and Oyo States in the South West region, while APC was projected to win in Ondo State, with PDP projected to win in Osun State. 

LP was projected to win all the states in the South East with almost all the states polling close to 90% for LP. Labour Party was also projected to win in all the states of the South-South. 

The poll indicates that among voters across all age ranges, Labour Party has the greatest level of preference, except for those in the 65-74 age range. The party is also favored among the majority of educational attainment groups. Labour Party has the greatest level of preference among urban voters, but only a slight advantage over other leading political parties among rural voters. 

Poll Meant to Cause Post-Election Crisis – APC PCC

In reaction to the Nextier poll, the Presidential Campaign Council of the APC in a statement signed by its Director, Media, and Publicity, Bayo Onanuga stated that the poll was meant to prepare the stage for the post-election crisis. 

“We suspect that their first and second fallacious poll results are a pretext to cause political crisis and riots in Nigeria after the February 25. They may be preparing the ground for violent protest by Obi supporters who will allege rigging when their candidate is roundly defeated at the election, in which he is not likely to even come a distant 3rd.” Onanuga said. 

David Olujinmi

David Olujinmi studies Engineering but his true passion is research and analysis. He writes about finance, particularly the capital market, investment banking, and asset management. More »

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