Meta Platforms is developing a standalone prediction markets application as Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg seeks to expand the company’s presence beyond social networking and artificial intelligence, according to a report by the New York Times.
The report, citing employees familiar with the project, said Zuckerberg recently assigned a small team within Meta Platforms to build a smartphone application similar to prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi.
The proposed app, internally known as “Arena,” is expected to allow users to forecast the outcomes of future events. According to the report, the platform will likely initially rely on a points-based system resembling video game mechanics rather than real-money wagering, although the company has not ruled out introducing financial stakes in the future.
Meta has not publicly commented on the report, and Reuters said it was unable to independently verify the information.
Growth of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have gained significant traction in recent years, particularly during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, where traders used such platforms to speculate on electoral outcomes and other major events. The sector has since expanded into an emerging asset class, enabling users to trade contracts linked to politics, economic indicators, sports competitions, and other real-world developments.
Financial platforms including Robinhood Markets and Interactive Brokers have also entered the space by offering event-based contracts.
The New York Times reported that Arena would operate independently from Meta’s core social media products, including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger.
The prediction markets initiative is reportedly one of several experimental projects underway at Meta. Another application under development, known internally as Meta Photos, is focused on creating new forms of AI-generated media.
Meta could potentially leverage its vast user base to accelerate adoption of the new service. The company reported 3.56 billion daily active people across its family of apps in April, underscoring the scale of its global reach.
Analysts at Bernstein estimated in April that prediction markets could grow into a $1 trillion annual trading industry by the end of the decade. However, the sector has also attracted heightened regulatory and market scrutiny, particularly following reports of unusually successful trades ahead of major policy announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump.
If launched, Arena would represent Meta’s latest effort to diversify its product portfolio and capitalize on growing interest in alternative forms of online participation and forecasting.
