European shares reached new record highs on Monday, driven primarily by a surge in defense and aerospace stocks and Ukraine peace talks. The STOXX 600 index rose by 0.4%, reflecting a positive market response to recent geopolitical developments.
The defense and aerospace sector index (.SXPARO) soared nearly 4%, hitting lifetime peaks. This sector has more than doubled in value since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine three years ago. The increase is attributed to rising defense budgets across Europe, prompted by security concerns. Analysts describe this trend as a “supercycle” for the defense industry, expecting earnings to continue their strong upward trajectory.
Impact of Ukraine Conflict Developments
The optimism in the markets was partly fueled by talks of peace in Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron hosted an emergency summit on Ukraine following indications from U.S. officials that Europe would not be involved in peace negotiations in Saudi Arabia. Britain expressed readiness to send peacekeeping troops to support any peace deal. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that Ukraine would not recognize any decisions from talks where they were not represented.
Economic and Political Responses
Bruno Schneller from Erlen Capital Management noted that a resolution in Ukraine could boost European growth through improved consumer confidence, lower energy costs, and better financial conditions. Meanwhile, the European Commission is considering imposing strict import limits on certain foods, mirroring U.S. policies under former President Donald Trump, to protect local farmers.
Banks also saw significant gains, with the sector index (.SX7P) up 1.2%, reaching 17-year highs. This was supported by rising bond yields, which generally improve bank profitability through wider net interest margins.
Trade Policy Uncertainties
Although the immediate threat of U.S. tariffs has been deferred until April, the potential for new tariffs based on value-added taxes in other countries remains a concern. Schneller highlighted trade policy as a wildcard that could influence inflation and growth.
Currency and Commodity Markets
The euro slightly declined by 0.2% to about $1.05, while the dollar weakened by nearly 0.6% against the yen to 151.46. The pound remained stable at around $1.2593. In commodities, gold pulled back from last week’s record high of $2,899 per ounce. Oil prices saw minor increases with Brent up by 9 cents to $74.82 a barrel and U.S. crude rising by 13 cents to $70.87, influenced by OPEC+’s consideration to delay planned supply increases.
Investors are looking forward to a week filled with significant data releases, including global business activity indicators and German elections. Central banks in Australia and New Zealand are also expected to adjust interest rates.
U.S. Market Holiday
U.S. markets were closed for Presidents Day, resulting in lighter trading volumes, though futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showed gains of 0.2%.
This comprehensive market reaction underscores the intricate relationship between geopolitical events, sector-specific developments, and broader economic indicators, shaping investor sentiment across Europe.
