Nigeria’s crude oil production declined both year-on-year and month-on-month in January 2026, falling short of federal budget projections and cartel expectations despite favorable global prices, according to newly released official data.
Statistics from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission show total output, including condensate, dropped 6.3 percent to 1.627 million barrels per day in January 2026 from 1.737 million barrels per day recorded in January 2025. Compared with December’s production level, output also weakened, underscoring persistent volatility in Nigeria’s upstream sector.
The January figure missed the 1.84 million barrels-per-day benchmark built into the 2026 fiscal framework of the Federal Government of Nigeria, raising concerns about revenue projections and the country’s capacity to meet spending commitments tied to oil earnings.
Separate figures from OPEC show Nigeria’s crude production excluding condensate fell to 1.459 million barrels per day, down from 1.539 million barrels per day a year earlier. The sustained gap between actual output and targets highlights ongoing structural constraints, including pipeline disruptions, underinvestment, and operational inefficiencies.
Energy economists warn that unless production rebounds in the coming months, Nigeria could face heightened fiscal strain, particularly if output shortfalls persist alongside rising expenditure demands.
