Nigeria’s headline inflation rate surged to 24.23% in March 2025, against expectations, according to the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
This represents a 1.05% rise from the 23.18% recorded in February 2025, signaling intensifying pressure on household incomes and the escalating cost of living across the nation.
NBS in January, overhauled the consumer price index for the first time in 16 years and changed the reference year to 2024, which it said would better reflect the inflation pressures facing households in Nigeria, which saw the figure drop from 34.80% in December 2024 to 24.48% in January 2025.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 117.34, reflecting a 4.40-point jump from the prior month.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation reached 3.90%, up 1.85% from February’s 2.04%, indicating a faster rise in average price levels.
Key Drivers of Headline Inflation
- Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages remained the largest contributor, accounting for 9.28% of the YoY inflation increase.
- Restaurants and Accommodation Services followed with a 2.99% contribution, reflecting higher dining and hospitality costs.
- Transportation costs added 2.47%, driven by rising fuel prices and logistics expenses.
- Housing, Water, Electricity, and Gas contributed 1.95%, as energy tariffs and rental costs continued to climb.
- Fuel contributed 1.95%, Education services accounted for 1.44%, while health services added 1.40%.
- Clothing and footwear contributed 1.17%. Information and communication, alongside personal care and miscellaneous goods, each added 0.76%.
- Furnishings and household maintenance contributed 0.69%. Insurance and financial services had a modest 0.11% impact.
Month-on-month contributions mirrored this trend, with food leading at 0.82%. Restaurants and transport followed at 0.26% and 0.22%, respectively.
Urban and Rural Dynamics
Urban inflation outpaced rural inflation in March 2025, highlighting normal faster price increases in urban centers, due to higher demand and service costs.
Year-on-year, the urban inflation rate hit 26.12%, and on a month-on-month basis, up 1.56% to 3.96%, from February’s 2.40%.
In contrast, rural inflation stood at 20.89% year-on-year. Month-on-month, rural inflation was 3.73%, a 2.57% increase from February’s 1.16%.
Food Inflation Hits 21.79% as Staple Prices Soar
Food inflation soared to 21.79% year-on-year in March 2025. On a month-on-month basis, it rose to 2.18%, up 0.50% from February’s 1.67%.
Specific items drove this increase, including ginger, garri, broken rice (Ofada), honey, crabs, potatoes, plantain flour, periwinkle, and fresh pepper. These staples, critical to Nigerian diets, saw accelerated price hikes.
States like Oyo (34.41%), Kaduna (31.14%), and Kebbi (30.85%) recorded the highest YoY food inflation rates.
Conversely, Bayelsa (9.61%), Adamawa (12.41%), and Akwa Ibom (12.60%) had the lowest food inflation rates.
Core Inflation Climbs to 24.43%
Core inflation, excluding volatile agricultural produce and energy, reached 24.43% year-on-year in March 2025. On a month-on-month basis, it rose to 3.73%, up 1.21% from February’s 2.52%. This highlights persistent price pressures beyond volatile food and energy prices.
State-Level Inflation
State-level data showed significant variation in inflation rates. Kaduna recorded the highest year-on-year all-items inflation at 33.33%. Osun followed at 32.08%, and Kebbi at 30.74%. Akwa Ibom had the lowest at 12.81%, trailed by Bayelsa at 14.02% and Sokoto at 14.83%.
Economic Implications and Outlook
The surge in inflation signals deepening cost-of-living challenges for Nigerian households.
With food, transport, and energy costs driving inflation, policymakers face mounting pressure to stabilize prices.
The anticipated inflation rate may determine the monetary policy decision of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) during its May 2025 meeting. Higher energy and petroleum costs may further increase consumer expenses, while Nigerians are bracing up for potential hikes in food prices
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would most likely hold rates to assess the previous tightening effects, as they are yet to have an impact, and a rate cut would most likely be risky.
