Geregu Power Plc, one of Nigeria’s leading listed power generation companies, has issued a bullish forecast for the first quarter of 2026, projecting a profit of ₦12.03 billion for the period ending March 31, 2026. The earnings outlook highlights robust operational momentum driven by strong energy and capacity charge receipts.
Revenue Outlook: ₦57.1 Billion Expected in Q1 2026
According to the company’s forecast statement, Geregu anticipates ₦57.12 billion in revenue, reflecting steady commercial performance as grid demand and dispatch levels improve across the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI).
Cost of sales is projected at ₦34.24 billion, resulting in a gross profit of ₦22.88 billion.
The revenue trajectory positions Geregu among the most consistently performing generation companies on the Nigerian Exchange, continuing the trend of year-on-year growth observed since its 2022 listing.
Operating Profit to Hit ₦18.1 Billion
The company expects operating profit of ₦18.12 billion, even after factoring in:
₦2.25 billion impairment loss on financial assets
₦2.51 billion in administrative expenses
Finance income of ₦1.14 billion will be offset by finance costs of ₦2.20 billion, leaving a net finance cost of ₦1.06 billion.
Profit before tax is pegged at ₦17.06 billion, while income tax expense of ₦5.03 billion will bring net profit to ₦12.03 billion.
Cash Flow Forecast Shows Strong Liquidity Position
The company’s Q1 2026 cash flow projection shows a strong liquidity buffer supported by improved collections.
Key highlights include:
1. Operating Cash Flow: ₦21.66 Billion
Cash receipts from energy and capacity charge: ₦57.78 billion
Cash paid to suppliers and employees: ₦27.78 billion
Income tax paid: ₦8.34 billion
Net cash from operating activities is forecast at ₦21.66 billion, reflecting healthy operational efficiency.
2. Investing Cash Flow: ₦523.6 Million
Moderate capex is expected:
Purchase of intangible assets: ₦13.25 million
Major overhaul project finance: ₦737.99 million
Interest income received: ₦1.27 billion
3. Financing Cash Flow: –₦8.30 Billion
Term loan interest paid: ₦1.95 billion
Bond repayments: ₦6.35 billion
Geregu projects its cash and cash equivalents to rise to ₦46.68 billion by March 31, 2026, up from ₦32.80 billion on January 1.
Strengthening Financial Profile Ahead of Nigeria’s Power Market Reforms
The strong Q1 2026 guidance reinforces Geregu Power’s positioning as a resilient, cash-generating asset ahead of expected changes in Nigeria’s electricity market structure. With states preparing for sub-national electricity markets under the new Electricity Act, vertically integrated and well-capitalised generators like Geregu are expected to benefit from improved contractual frameworks and liquidity reforms.
Analysts also point to Geregu’s clean balance sheet, consistent cash flows, and capacity payment structure as competitive advantages as the industry moves toward a more decentralised, state-driven model.
Market Implications
Should Geregu deliver on the forecast, the company will continue its trajectory of strong quarterly performance, which has been a key factor in its premium valuation on the Nigerian Exchange:
High liquidity
Reliable operational profile
Investor confidence built around transparency in projections
The Q1 2026 forecast suggests that Geregu remains one of the few energy-sector companies with stable profitability despite systemic industry challenges such as gas supply constraints and grid instability.
