The National grid is said to have collapsed 105 times in the last ten years, despite the $1.4billion invested in the power sector.
According to Punch, Nigeria secured about 10 loans worth $4.36bn from the World Bank over the past decade to address key challenges in its power sector.
Even though not all of the loans have been completely disbursed, there has also been support funds from the federal government and other multilateral agencies to revamp the power sector, all of which has yielded very little fruits in the sector.
The power grid is said to have collapsed 93 times under Buhari and a further 12 times in close to two years so far under president Tinubu.
Spate of Recent Grid collapses
Data obtained from different sources, including the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, showed that the grid collapsed approximately 93 times during the eight-year rule of Buhari, from June 2015 to May 2023.
The grid collapsed three times in 2015, 28 times in 2016, 24 times in 2017, 13 times in 2018, and 11 times in 2019 and a further 14 times between 2020 – 2023 until Buhari vacated office on May 29, 2023.
Under President Tinubu so far, grid collapses occurred three times between June and December 2023. Since January 2024 till date, the national grid has collapsed about nine times with three of such collapses occurring last week alone with its attendant blackouts, bringing the number of grid collapses under President Tinubu to no fewer than 12 in 16 months.
Countless Bailouts in the Power Sector
According to Punch, Nigeria secured about 10 loans worth $4.36bn from the World Bank between 2014 and 2024 to revamp the power sector, the loans aimed at supporting infrastructural development, distribution reforms, and renewable energy initiatives, in the power sector are said to be at different stages of progress.
While some of the loans are still disbursing, others have been signed but are yet to begin disbursement. However, one loan approved in 2014 has been terminated.
World bank Bailouts
Documents on the website of the world bank revealed that four loans, amounting to $2bn, have been signed for the Nigerian power sector but are yet to disburse any funds. These include the Sustainable Power and Irrigation Project, valued at $500m, which was signed in September 2024, and three components under the Nigeria Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up Project, totalling $750m, approved in December 2023.
Five other loans are currently actively disbursing funds, though large portions of their allocations remain undrawn. These projects include the Power Sector Recovery Performance-Based Operation, the North Core Regional Power Interconnector, the Nigeria Electrification Project, and the NG-Electricity Transmission Project all put at $2.06bn, representing 47.25 per cent of the total loan portfolio given in the Nigerian energy sector by world bank.
Punch also reports that of the five loans currently under disbursement, Nigeria is already making repayments on three of them. One of such is the Nigeria Electrification Project, which has disbursed $269.67m from a total allocation of $350m, another is the North Core Regional Power Interconnector which has released $15.74m from a $27.4m facility while the NG-Electricity Transmission Project, with two components worth $486m, is also disbursing funds while repayments are ongoing.
It is also worthy to note that one of the projects financed by these loans has been terminated after the Nigeria Power Sector Guarantees Project, initially valued at $125m, was cancelled on May 1, 2014, without any funds being disbursed.
The terminated project was aimed at improving electricity supply for consumers by supporting private sector-led investments in power generation and distribution in order to back key reforms in Nigeria’s power sector through a series of partial risk guarantees intended to support three key areas: greenfield Independent Power Producers’ projects, the privatisation of Generation Companies, and the turnaround of distribution companies.
These numerous loans have however been able to forestall the incidences of power grid collapse that has become a normal occurrence in Nigeria.
Reasons for Constant Grid Collapses
In light of recent developments in the power sector typified by constant grid collapses, the major question on the lips of Nigerians have been what the causes of the incessant grid collapse were.
Some of the causes of the power grid collapse as put forward by the government and regulatory agencies include the following:
Government reasons
Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu blamed the constant grid collapse on the deplorable state of the power infrastructure in the country.
In a recent interview, he states “We keep talking about grid collapse. Grid collapse, grid collapse, whether it’s a total collapse, partial collapse, or slight trip-off. This is almost inevitable as it is today, given the state of our power infrastructure, the infrastructure is in deplorable conditions, so why won’t you have trip-offs? Why won’t you have collapses, either total or partial? It will continue to remain like this until we can overhaul the entire infrastructure. What we do now is to make sure that we manage it”
On its part, the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) and the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) blamed the recent collapse of the national grid on a transformer that exploded at 330kV Jebba Transmission substation. NERC then went ahead to announce plans to conduct an investigative public hearing to identify both the immediate and underlying causes of recurring grid disturbances and widespread outages.
Citizens’ Views
Some experts on the power sector have also identified some other reasons for the constant collapse of the national power grid to include the abnormality in the transmission sector, FG control over power distribution as well as the inadequate energy supplied from the power stations to the national power grid.
Abnormality in power transmission to grids
To normalize the power supply to grids, there is always a need to rationalize the grid frequency and voltage with the most common item that causes the national grid collapse being measured by grid frequency.
According to Habu Sadeik, a power sector analyst, “The national grid stabilisation and maintenance is done by two methods: grid frequency and voltage. The most common item that causes the national grid collapse is measured by grid frequency.
“Grid frequency measures the demand and supply of electricity dispatch to consumers from the GenCos. Frequency meters are measured in hertz (Hz). Based on the grid code, our normal frequency level is supposed to be 50Hz.
“For example, if power generation is 4000MWh and people use all the 4000MWh, then supply is equal to demand, and frequency should be 50Hz. This is a perfect condition but very unlikely.
“If we generate 4000MWh and people use 3700MWh, then supply is higher than demand, and for that reason, the frequency will show you 51Hz.
“If we generate 4000MWh and people are trying to use 4200MWh, demand is higher than supply, and for that reason, the frequency will show 49Hz.
“Nigeria’s national grid is set to operate on a designated frequency level upper limit of 51.25Hz, lower limit of 48.75Hz. The job of an SO is to make sure that the frequency movement is in between these two levels,” Sadeik explained.
He further explained that a simple scenario of power demand more than supply can be likened to using a small generating set to power two hotplates, an air conditioner and a microwave oven.
“If it exceeds the threshold above or below it, such might trigger a national grid collapse. A grid collapse is not like a collapse that something bad happens, no. The 26 grid connected generators will automatically shut down because of safety and security reasons.”
FG Control Over Power Distribution
The Electricity Act 2023, as a constitution amendment, restored the states’ authority in the power sector to pre-1999 levels. The expanded constitutional provision effectively meant that States within the Federation can now license the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity in all areas within their States, set up commissions and agencies to issue such licences, and make policies and regulations across the entire power sector value chain. This also demonopolised the current regulatory powers of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC).
However, due to the absence of power grids in states of the federation, the Federal Government has had to retain control of the power distribution and transmission across the country which has further increased the pressure on the national grid.
Cuban Power Grid Collapse
Nigeria seem not to be alone in the wilderness of power grid collapse as Cuba’s electrical grid also collapsed again on Sunday, making it the fourth such failure in 48 hours, raising fresh doubts about a quick fix on an island already suffering from severe shortages of food, fuel and medicine.
The blackout, after weeks of rolling outages, sparked some small protests around the Caribbean island, where a tropical storm threatened to hamper efforts to restore power.
Cuba’s national electric power grid first collapsed around midday on Friday after the island’s largest power plant shut down, sowing chaos and leaving around 10 million people in the dark. The grid has collapsed three times since, underscoring the precarious state of the country’s infrastructure.
The repeated failures mark a major setback in the government’s efforts to quickly restore power to exhausted residents, a majority of which have already suffered from months of blackouts through the Caribbean`s sultry summer.
The capital Havana was entirely blacked out on Sunday evening, with only scattered businesses, bars and homes running on small fuel-fired generators. Most of the city of two million was quiet. Residents played dominoes on the sidewalk, listened to music on battery-powered radios and sat on doorsteps.
The way Forward
The way forward at this point for the power sector in Nigeria is to fix the country’s ailing power infrastructure as well as ensuring that the decentralization of the power sector put forward in the Electric amendment Act, 2023 is carried out to the later in order to ensure that other players come into the power sector to relieve the national grid.
But till then, the Nigerians would constantly be at the mercy of the failing national grid times and times again.
