Oil prices surged in the global market, due to a sharp rebound in China’s oil imports and persistent uncertainty over US tariff implementations.
On Monday, data revealed a significant uptick in China’s crude oil imports, climbing nearly 5% from the previous year and rebounding sharply from the prior two months. This could counter expectations of increased OPEC+ supply in May.
According to the General Administration of Customs, total imports hit 51.41 million metric tons, equivalent to 12.1 million barrels per day, driven by a surge in Iranian oil and a resurgence of Russian deliveries.
Oil prices responded swiftly to China’s import surge, with Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) both rising 0.3% to $64.95 and $61.66 per barrel, respectively, by Monday.
Last week, Brent closed at $64.76 and WTI at $61.50 per barrel, reflecting a rebound after an initial dip triggered by President Donald Trump’s unexpected tariff hikes on major trading partners.
While Trump paused levies for 90 days for most countries, China remained excluded, intensifying US-China trade war tensions.
A Friday notice from US Customs and Border Protection suggested electronic products might escape 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, sparking market hope. However, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick clarified on Sunday that electronics face new semiconductor-specific tariffs within one to two months, not a permanent exemption.
President Trump reinforced this, denying any broad exception on Truth Social: “These products are subject to the existing 20% fentanyl tariffs they are just moving to a different tariff ‘bucket.’”
The US dollar index plummeted to 99.014, its lowest in three years, making crude oil more affordable for oil-importing nations and supporting higher prices.
Simultaneously, the US oil rig count fell by 9 this week, reaching 480 for the week ending April 11, according to Baker Hughes data. Compared to a year ago, the rig count is down by 26, signaling a potential dip in short-term US production. These factors collectively underpin the current uptick in crude oil prices.
Investors are now focused on upcoming economic indicators, due this week, which could further clarify the trajectory of China’s oil market trends, which could influence crude oil prices globally.
The global commodity market remains on edge as oil prices climb amid China’s import surge and US tariff confusion. With key economic data from China pending and the US-China trade war unresolved, demand and supply dynamics could shift rapidly.
What you need to know
Nigeria’s crude production crashed in March to 1.4 million bpd from 1.465 million bpd in February, per NUPRC data. This marks the third consecutive decline in daily average crude oil production since January, leading to doubts about achieving the 2 million barrels per day goal.
NUPRC stated that the lowest and peak production in March were 1.49 million barrels and 1.76 million barrels, respectively.
Nigerian Upstream and Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has announced that Nigeria’s official petroleum reserves have increased to 37.28 billion barrels of crude oil and condensate, along with 210.54 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
