A targeted global intervention of just $6 billion could prevent as many as 32 million people from falling into poverty due to the economic shockwaves of ongoing conflict in the Middle East, according to Alexander De Croo.
Speaking during high-level economic discussions in Washington, De Croo who leads the United Nations Development Programme said recent hostilities have reversed decades of development gains in a matter of weeks, largely through surging energy prices and disruptions to global supply chains.
“Ending the war is the first priority,” De Croo noted, but emphasized that immediate economic mitigation is essential. He advocated for targeted, time-limited cash transfers as the most efficient policy tool, arguing they outperform broad subsidies in both speed and impact. Energy subsidies, while politically attractive, tend to be less precise and can strain already fragile public finances.
Global Growth Outlook Downgrade
The warning comes as the International Monetary Fund downgraded its global growth outlook, citing sustained energy price spikes and supply disruptions linked to the conflict. The IMF cautioned that if oil prices remain elevated—potentially above $100 per barrel through 2027—the global economy could edge toward recession.
Developing economies are particularly vulnerable. Many face tight fiscal space, rising debt burdens, and limited capacity for broad stimulus measures, making targeted interventions more viable. De Croo framed the proposed $6 billion not as aid, but as a high-return economic investment, noting that the cost of inaction would be significantly higher in lost productivity, instability, and humanitarian fallout.
A critical enabler of such interventions is the rapid expansion of mobile money infrastructure, especially across Sub-Saharan Africa. Over the past decade, access to financial accounts has surged, with roughly 75% of people in low- and middle-income countries now able to receive digital payments. According to GSMA, mobile money transactions reached $2 trillion in 2025, underscoring the scalability of direct cash support mechanisms.
The region is also among the hardest hit by the crisis, particularly due to disruptions in fertilizer supply chains—an indirect but severe consequence of the conflict that threatens agricultural productivity and food security.
As global leaders convene for the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank, the UNDP’s proposal highlights a growing consensus: precision-targeted economic relief, deployed quickly, may be the most effective buffer against a deepening global poverty crisis.
