The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that oil and gas prices could rise by 100% and 200%, respectively, in 2026-2027 if the US-Israeli operation against Iran is prolonged.
The IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook report outlined three scenarios for further global economic developments, taking into account the ongoing war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The first, most optimistic scenario assumes that the war will be limited in duration, intensity and scale, with its negative economic consequences largely dissipating by mid-year. The two other scenarios assume that the conflict lasts longer or expands.
Under the most adverse scenario, oil prices will rise by 100% starting from Q2 of 2026 compared to the baseline established in the January World Economic Outlook, and remaining at that level in 2027 before dissipating in 2028.
In this case, the average oil price would amount to about $110 per barrel this year and approximately $125 next year, IMF experts estimate. At the same time, they note that gas prices for Europe and Asia would increase by 200% over the same period.
Under the adverse scenario, oil prices are projected to rise by 80% starting from the second quarter of 2026 compared to the baseline set in the January World Economic Outlook, before declining to around 20% above the baseline in 2027 and dissipating in 2028, the fund’s analysts believe. In this case, they specify, the average oil price would be about $100 per barrel this year and approximately $75 next year. Meanwhile, under this scenario, gas prices for Europe and Asia would rise by 160% in the Q2 compared to the baseline, before largely declining in 2027.
Finally, under the favorable scenario, energy prices are expected to increase by 19% in 2026, with oil prices specifically rising by 21.4%, according to the IMF. In this case, oil prices would amount to $82.22 per barrel this year and $75.97 next year, the report’s estimated.
