Federal Ministry of Finance has announced that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 4.07% in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking one of the strongest quarterly growth performances in the past decade outside the immediate post-pandemic rebound.
The figures, released by the National Bureau of Statistics and welcomed by Finance Minister Wale Edun, signal what the government describes as broad-based economic expansion under the reform programme of Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Second 4% Quarter in a Decade
The 4.07% Q4 2025 growth follows 4.23% growth in Q2 2025, and represents a clear acceleration from the 3.76% recorded in Q3 2024.
According to the Finance Ministry, this is only the second time in ten years—excluding the sharp rebound period following COVID-19—that quarterly growth has crossed the 4% threshold.
The data reinforces a narrative the government has been pushing: that macroeconomic stabilisation efforts are beginning to reflect in real sector output.
Broad-Based Growth Across Agriculture, Industry and Services
Unlike previous cycles where expansion was concentrated in a few segments, the Q4 2025 data suggests diversification.
Agriculture: Recovery from Security and Input Gains
Agriculture grew by 4.0% in Q4 2025, up sharply from 2.54% in Q4 2024.
The Finance Ministry attributes the improvement to:
• Improved security in food-producing regions
• Better access to agricultural inputs
• Targeted productivity interventions
Given agriculture’s large weight in Nigeria’s GDP, this rebound materially supported overall growth.
Industry: FX Liquidity and Energy Reforms
The industrial sector expanded by 3.88%, compared to 2.49% in Q4 2024.
Officials linked the performance to:
• Improved foreign exchange liquidity
• Ongoing energy sector reforms
• Renewed investor confidence
With foreign exchange reforms and gradual stabilisation of the naira, manufacturing and extractive segments appear to be adjusting to a more predictable operating environment.
Services: Continued Expansion in Telecoms and Finance
Services grew by 4.15%, driven by resilience in:
• Financial services
• Telecommunications
• Trade
• Technology-enabled segments
Services remain Nigeria’s largest GDP contributor, and its sustained expansion signals continued domestic demand and financial intermediation activity.
30 Sub-Sectors Above 3% Growth
Perhaps most significant is the structural depth of the expansion: approximately 30 subsectors recorded growth rates above 3%.
That breadth suggests growth is not narrowly concentrated in oil or telecommunications alone but distributed across multiple economic segments—an important signal for investors assessing systemic resilience.
Full-Year 2025 Growth at 3.87%
For the full year 2025, Nigeria’s real GDP expanded by 3.87%, up from 3.38% in 2024.
The size of the economy increased to:
• ₦441.5 trillion in 2025
• From ₦372.8 trillion in 2024
The nominal expansion reflects both real growth and price effects, but in real terms, the trajectory indicates steady acceleration relative to 2024.
Reform Narrative and Investor Signalling
Minister Wale Edun framed the data as validation of reforms focused on:
• Fiscal coordination
• Revenue mobilisation
• Expenditure discipline
• Transparency in public finance
• Macroeconomic credibility
The Finance Ministry emphasised that the latest GDP figures send a positive signal to foreign investors, multilateral institutions and long-term capital allocators evaluating Nigeria’s reform trajectory.
In an environment where sovereign risk perception, exchange rate stability and fiscal sustainability remain central to investor decision-making, sustained growth above 4% could materially alter Nigeria’s macro narrative if maintained across subsequent quarters.
What to Watch
While the Q4 performance is strong, durability will depend on:
• Inflation moderation
• Continued FX market stability
• Energy supply improvements
• Fiscal consolidation
• Private sector investment momentum
If growth remains broad-based and reforms continue to deepen, 2026 could mark the first sustained high-growth cycle since before the oil price shock decade.
