Nigeria’s real GDP output expanded by 4.07% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, signalling a sustained recovery in aggregate economic activity and marking one of the strongest quarterly growth prints in recent years.
The latest data, released on Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), showed that the economy maintained growth momentum despite persistent structural constraints, including foreign exchange volatility, inflationary pressure and tight financial conditions.
According to the NBS GDP report for Q4 2025, the 4.07% real growth rate represents an improvement compared to the corresponding period of 2024, reflecting stronger performance across key productive sectors. Real GDP growth measures output adjusted for inflation, providing a clearer indicator of underlying economic expansion.
Sectoral performance
The NBS indicated that growth was primarily driven by expansion in the services sector, which continued to outperform other segments of the economy. Telecommunications, financial services, trade and information technology activities were among the strongest contributors to output growth during the quarter.
The non-oil sector remained the dominant driver of overall GDP, reinforcing Nigeria’s gradual shift away from oil-dependency. Analysts note that continued growth in services and agriculture underscores the structural transformation underway, albeit at a moderate pace.
Oil sector performance showed relative stabilisation in Q4 2025, supported by improved crude production levels compared to previous quarters. However, the sector’s contribution to overall GDP growth remained comparatively modest, reflecting ongoing operational and infrastructure challenges.
Quarter-on-quarter dynamics
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, real GDP also recorded positive expansion, suggesting resilience in domestic demand and investment flows toward the end of the year. Economists interpret this as a sign that macroeconomic reforms initiated in 2024 and 2025 are gradually transmitting into measurable output gains.
Inflationary pressures, while still elevated, moderated slightly during the quarter, easing cost burdens for producers and consumers. Improved fiscal coordination and exchange rate adjustments also contributed to relative macroeconomic stability.
