The cost of cooking a household-size pot of jollof rice in Nigeria, tracked via the SBM Intelligence “Jollof Index” – fell by 3.17 per cent, from ₦27,528 in June to ₦26,656 in September.
While the decline signals some relief for food-affordability concerns, it masks deeper troubles in the food-price landscape.
According to SBM’s report titled ‘Jollof Index Q3 2025: A Tale of Two Economics’, the moderation “is largely statistical, not practical” and driven mainly by seasonal harvests rather than lasting improvements.
Why the fall matters — and why it doesn’t
Lower food-costs are always welcome in a country where food forms a large share of household spending. The drop in the index offers a little breathing space. The research notes two contributing factors: import waivers for key food items and a more stable naira, which improved market supply.
Yet the relief remains precarious. The report warns the “non-linear decline, with meaningful relief materialising only in September, suggests that the price moderation is overwhelmingly tied to the timing of seasonal supply arrival and early harvest yields, rather than systematic improvements in logistics or security.”
Structural headwinds
SBM highlights that food inflation remains anchored by deep structural problems: security failures and logistics bottlenecks. Transporters routinely pay ₦5,000 to ₦50,000 in informal fees or spend on armed escorts, hidden costs that “add up to 20 per cent to 30 per cent on the final price of goods, effectively functioning as an ‘unofficial tax on commerce’”.
Unless the “architecture of extortion (the unofficial checkpoints and illegal escort systems)” is dismantled, Nigeria’s food inflation will keep resisting conventional policy tools.
Regional divergences
The report casts Nigeria’s food-price dynamics as bifurcated. In Kano, a northern trade hub, the index actually rose 6.83 per cent in Q3, borne out of insecurity and diversion of local produce.
Meanwhile Port Harcourt saw a 1.84 per cent increase, driven by poor roads and high internal distribution costs. On the flip side, Bauchi recorded a sharp 15 per cent decline thanks to local harvests.
The picture: while some regions benefit from harvest timing, others are pushed in opposite directions by violence and logistics.
What needs to happen now
SBM’s recommendations are clear: restore security in agricultural zones; declare a state of emergency on key federal roads; and dismantle the informal tax-like extortion network that is levying food movement.
The Q3 dip may be real but fragile. There’s a warning the relief could reverse in Q4 as festive demand rises — unless the government acts quickly to solidify supply chains and reduce transit costs.
Policymakers are urged to look beyond year-on-year inflation figures and sharpen focus on extreme month-on-month volatility and persistently high absolute prices.
Bottom line
Yes, the Jollof Index dropping by 3.17 per cent offers a glimmer of hope. But the story behind it is uneven: relief driven by harvest cycles, not by durable supply-chain reforms. Until the hidden costs of insecurity and logistics are addressed, Nigerian households remain under heavy pressure.
