Nigeria’s economy is larger than previously recorded, according to newly released figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Using 2019 as the new base year, the rebased nominal GDP reached N372.82 trillion in 2024, marking a 35.4% increase over estimates derived from the old 2010 base year.
Also using 2019 as base year, 2019 nominal GDP was recalculated to N205.09 trillion, N213.64 trillion in 2020, N243.30 trillion in 2021, N274.23 trillion in 2022, and N314.02 trillion in 2023.
Compared to the old 2010 base year estimates, the rebasing shows a 41.7% increase in nominal GDP in 2019, with consistent gains of over 34% in subsequent years.
The upward revision reflects NBS’s improvements in data coverage, methodology, and economic classification.
Real GDP Growth and Sectoral Trends After Rebasing
Rebasing findings from the NBS reveals there was a steep contraction of real GDP by -6.96% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, Nigeria’s real GDP returned to growth at 0.95% in 2021, accelerating to 4.32% in 2022.
Real Growth then moderated to 3.04% in 2023 and 3.38% in 2024. Notably, the services sector led this rebound with a growth rate of 4.43% in 2024, followed by industry at 2.80%, and agriculture at 1.69%.
In 2020, the agriculture sector grew fastest at 2.66%, while industry and services shrank by -22.72% and -5.37%, respectively.
Structural Shift: Services and Agriculture Rise
A major finding from the rebasing report is the structural changes of the composition of Nigeria’s GDP.
In nominal terms, the agriculture sector’s share increased from 22.12% (under the 2010 base) to 25.83% using 2019 base year.
Conversely, the industry sector shrank from 27.65% to 21.08%, while the services sector grew from 50.22% to 53.09%.
This shift indicates a maturing services economy and the continued importance of agriculture, while industry appears to be losing ground.
According to the report, Real estate now ranks third in GDP contribution, overtaking crude oil and gas, thanks to improved coverage of the informal real estate segment.
The Top Five Economic Activities in New GDP Rankings
In the updated 2019 GDP composition, crop production remained the largest economic activity at 17.58%, followed closely by trade at 17.42%.
Real estate now accounts for 10.78%, up from 6.24%, followed by telecommunications (6.78%) and crude petroleum and natural gas (5.85%), down from 8.60%.
Improved Data Coverage Across Key Sectors
The rebasing incorporated extensive new data sources and methodologies. Water transport saw a dramatic revision of 1,367%, thanks to the inclusion of activities from the NPA, NIMASA, NIWA, and NSC.
Human health, arts, administrative services, and recreation also saw major uplifts, reflecting long-overlooked services now properly counted.
The agriculture sector benefited from the National Agricultural Sample Census and Survey, leading to an 843% increase in forestry and a 458% increase in livestock contributions.
Financial services were updated in line with the System of National Accounts (2008), and informal sector contributions rose to 42.5% from 41.4%.
Implications of the Rebased GDP
The rebased GDP provides a clearer picture of Nigeria’s economic realities, offering investors, policymakers, and analysts a more accurate foundation for decision-making.
It underscores the growing influence of the agricultural, services, and informal sectors while revealing structural vulnerabilities in industrial output.
