The workings of a government at prayer

…No, the budgeting process is not flawed. For, at bottom, each budget (at whatever level of government this process takes place) is no more than the faithful’s supplication to God. They are never intended as a plan of action; nor as guides to government’s conduct over the respective plan period. But more a wish-list to be placed out there in the open before the God that looks after the country.

You cannot tell this from listening to her people’s complaints; but at heart, Nigeria is a faith-based country. Attempts to gauge the depths of these grouses have often ended up describing the country as made up of some of the happiest people on earth. But these surveys often ignore how deeply religious her people also are. Possibly, a large part of the description of Nigerians as some of the happiest on earth is the result of the assurance that comes to a people from belief in an all-knowing and forever-forgiving God. Across our places of worship, the reading of this is that in the fullness of time, this deity (a miracle-working God, no less) would minister to each votary according to his/her needs.

Meanwhile, as they await the attention of their God, the faithful come off even better by paying heed to the ministrations of the “men of God” in their midst. No less important in the playing out of these faiths is acceptance of a basic fact: That these modern-day disciples of the Most High ask for a diversity of actions from their congregants as propitiation to God is the fault, not so much of God, but of the secular constraints with which mortal man continues to bind himself.

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The paying of tithes help, a great deal. As does untiring war on infidels. Prosecuted with a pure spirit, these acts of faith only fast-forward the doing of God’s will on earth, as it is currently the case in heaven. Scant surprise therefore that these acts of faith are pervasive in our space. Far more shocking are the strange other places in which they are to be met with. And nowhere is this indulgence in acts of faith stronger, nor its implications more far-reaching, than in the fiscal space, where key parts of the annual budget preparation cycle continue to conflate aspirations with outcomes.

Those who add (and then fret about) the fact that in the first five months of this year, the country spent nearly all of its revenue servicing its debt miss how this prayer thing works. For if the voice of man just mimics that of his God, what prayer can be greater than to beseech our debtors to forgive us our sins (of indebtedness) as we have those who sinned against us ― even as we continue to contract more debt?

Over the last 10 years, the Federal Government has earned less every year than its budget provides for; spending far more at the end of each year than it expropriated at the beginning. Over the last five years, it has run up a yearly deficit of about 65 per cent of budget on the back of this mismatch. Of late, it has spent far more than budgeted on both the recurrent and debt service elements of the budget. Spending far less on the capital expenditure lines that should ordinarily boost domestic productivity. And yet, our budgets speak to a strong desire to drive domestic growth rates up.

Still, it would be erroneous to think that this process betokens a broken budgeting process. Yes, as secular constraints, they continue to bind a mortal process. But, No, the budgeting process is not flawed. For, at bottom, each budget (at whatever level of government this process takes place) is no more than the faithful’s supplication to God. They are never intended as a plan of action; nor as guides to government’s conduct over the respective plan period. But more a wish-list to be placed out there in the open before the God that looks after the country. Invariably, collective acts of faith require the populace to heave as one in their favour, that God may sign off on plea. Each dissenting citizen, therefore, is as on to government as the non-tithe paying Christian is to the new church, or the tippler to the mosque ― an abomination before God, to be excised (with extreme prejudice) from the company of decent men.

The exchange rate estimate at US$1/N410.15 is far from the fictional number conjured out of the ether that it seems. It is the most fervent part of the Buhari government’s prayer. No better or worse than the seemingly heroic assumption of a 4.20 per cent output growth next year and headline inflation of 13 per cent.

The sanctity of this process was again underscored most recently with the passing by the Senate of the 2022-2024 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP). A key part of the budgeting process, the MTEF/FSP estimates the country’s daily crude oil production for 2022, 2023, and 2024 at 1.88 million barrels per day (mb/d), 2.23(mb/d), and 2.22(mb/d) respectively. This, after the energy transition and a poor policy environment, is drying up foreign investment in the nation’s oil and gas sector.

The exchange rate estimate at US$1/N410.15 is far from the fictional number conjured out of the ether that it seems. It is the most fervent part of the Buhari government’s prayer. No better or worse than the seemingly heroic assumption of a 4.20 per cent output growth next year and headline inflation of 13 per cent. Those who add (and then fret about) the fact that in the first five months of this year, the country spent nearly all of its revenue servicing its debt miss how this prayer thing works. For if the voice of man just mimics that of his God, what prayer can be greater than to beseech our debtors to forgive us our sins (of indebtedness) as we have those who sinned against us ― even as we continue to contract more debt?

Uddin Ifeanyi, journalist manqué and retired civil servant, can be reached @IfeanyiUddin.