Shell Plc has pledged an additional $20 billion investment in the Bonga South West (BSW) deep-offshore project, a commitment that stands out as one of the most consequential upstream investment signals Nigeria has received in recent years. The announcement reinforces growing investor confidence in the country’s oil and gas sector at a time when the government is seeking to stabilise production, attract foreign capital, and reposition Nigeria as a competitive destination for large-scale energy projects.
The commitment was disclosed following a high-level meeting between Bola Tinubu, President of Nigeria, and a Shell delegation led by Wael Sawan, Global Chief Executive Officer of Shell, at the State House in Abuja. The meeting formed part of a broader engagement between the Nigerian government and international energy companies aimed at restoring confidence after years of under-investment and project delays.
Shell’s proposed Bonga South West investment is widely regarded within the industry as one of the most significant deep-water capital commitments currently under consideration in Nigeria. Beyond its headline dollar value, the project is seen as a test case for whether the country’s post-reform fiscal and regulatory environment can support long-cycle offshore developments at scale.
The Bonga South West project itself is a major deep-offshore oil development located within the broader Bonga field area, offshore Nigeria. Operated by Shell under a production-sharing arrangement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), the project is designed to extend production life beyond the existing Bonga facilities while unlocking additional reserves. At a time when Nigeria’s onshore production has faced persistent challenges—from theft and vandalism to operational disruptions—deep-water assets such as Bonga South West are increasingly viewed as the backbone of future output stability.
Industry analysts characterise Bonga South West as a next-generation brownfield expansion. While it does not carry the geological uncertainty of frontier exploration, it is nonetheless substantial enough to justify multi-billion-dollar capital deployment, advanced offshore engineering, and long-term infrastructure planning. In this sense, it occupies a strategic middle ground: lower risk than new exploration, but transformative in scale and impact.
During the Abuja meeting, Shell formally informed the Nigerian government of its intention to commit approximately $20 billion to the Bonga South West development. The company indicated that the project would move forward through advanced planning toward a final investment decision, anchored firmly within Nigeria’s post-Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) deep-offshore fiscal framework. For Shell, the investment decision is inseparable from fiscal clarity, regulatory stability, and the sanctity of contracts—conditions that have historically shaped international oil company appetite for Nigerian projects.
President Tinubu used the engagement to offer explicit fiscal and policy assurances aimed at de-risking the project. He reaffirmed the Federal Government’s commitment to supporting deep-offshore investments and directed that any incentives required for the project be designed and gazetted in line with Nigeria’s existing petroleum, tax, and investment laws. Rather than relying on ad-hoc concessions, the administration emphasised a rules-based approach intended to signal predictability and durability to investors with long-term capital at stake.
The proposed $20 billion Bonga South West investment also builds on Shell’s recent financial commitments in Nigeria. Since the commencement of the Tinubu administration, Shell has invested approximately $7 billion in the country, with a particular focus on the Bonga North and Hydrocarbon Infrastructure (HI) projects. These developments are expected to generate thousands of direct and indirect jobs, boost foreign exchange earnings, and contribute to stabilising offshore production volumes.
This renewed wave of investment stands in marked contrast to the divestment cycle that characterised earlier periods, when several international oil companies scaled back their Nigerian exposure amid concerns about fiscal uncertainty, regulatory instability, and operational risk. In that context, Shell’s willingness to deepen its offshore footprint is being read as a vote of confidence not only in specific project economics, but in the broader direction of Nigeria’s energy policy.
From a national energy strategy perspective, the significance of the Shell Bonga South West investment extends beyond crude volumes alone. Deep-offshore projects are structurally less exposed to pipeline vandalism and crude theft, challenges that have weighed heavily on onshore operations. They also generate dollar-denominated revenues, strengthening foreign exchange inflows, and anchor technology transfer and local capacity development over long project lifecycles. For a government balancing near-term fiscal pressures with longer-term energy transition ambitions, such projects provide a measure of revenue resilience.
The meeting itself reflected the seniority with which both sides approached the engagement. Shell’s delegation included Peter Costello, President of Upstream at Shell Plc, and Marno de Jong, Executive Vice-President and Country Chair of Shell Nigeria. On the Nigerian side were Femi Gbajabiamila, Chief of Staff to the President; Ekperikpe Ekpo, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas); Bayo Ojulari, Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Limited; Zacch Adedeji, Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service; Ola Adeniji, Special Assistant to the President on Petroleum; and Yasmin Mohammed, Special Assistant to the President on Energy Transition.
For investors and industry observers, the Shell Bonga South West investment is therefore more than a single project announcement. It signals restored confidence by a major international oil company with deep operational experience in Nigeria, offers validation of the post-PIA deep-offshore fiscal regime, and may serve as a template for unlocking other stalled offshore developments. If the project advances to final investment decision as planned, it could rank among the largest upstream capital commitments in Africa this decade, reinforcing Nigeria’s position as a serious deep-water investment destination once again.
