Nigeria’s economy is projected to expand by 4.3% in 2026. This is supported by higher crude oil production and stronger performance across key sectors of the economy, according to a forward-looking macroeconomic outlook by PwC.
The growth projection reflects expectations of improved output in Nigeria’s dominant sectors, including oil and gas, services, and segments of manufacturing and agriculture. These improvements occur as policy reforms begin to yield measurable gains. Analysts say the outlook signals a broad-based recovery trajectory following recent macroeconomic adjustments.
Higher crude oil production is expected to play a central role in lifting growth. This is aided by gradual improvements in security around oil-producing regions and operational efficiencies. Increased output would not only boost export earnings but also strengthen fiscal revenues, creating additional room for public and private sector activity.
Beyond oil, the broader economic growth outlook is anchored on resilience in services and increased private sector participation. Reforms in the foreign exchange market and improving investor sentiment support this outlook. These factors are expected to reinforce Nigeria’s medium-term growth fundamentals.
Inflation to Ease
Inflation is projected to moderately ease in 2026, supported by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) tight monetary policy stance. Statistical rebasing effects and improved stability in the foreign exchange market also contribute. A slowdown in inflationary pressures could help restore consumer purchasing power. This would support domestic demand, further reinforcing GDP growth.
On the exchange rate, the naira is expected to remain broadly stable through 2026. It is underpinned by ongoing CBN reforms, improved foreign exchange liquidity, and stronger portfolio inflows. Exchange rate stability is seen as critical to sustaining growth. Additionally, it helps in reducing imported inflation and encouraging investment.
With inflation trending downward, analysts anticipate that the CBN may cautiously ease its monetary policy stance in 2026, although any adjustment is expected to be gradual and data-driven to avoid reigniting price pressures.
