OPEC Basket Price Rises to $75.96 Due to Oil Supply Constraints

The OPEC Daily Basket Price climbed to $75.96 per barrel on Tuesday, up from $75.74 the previous day, as reported by the OPEC Secretariat. This figure reflects a weighted average of crude oil prices from twelve OPEC member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Venezuela, and acts as a vital global oil pricing benchmark.

The basket comprises specific crudes: Saharan Blend (Algeria), Djeno (Congo), Zafiro (Equatorial Guinea), Rabi Light (Gabon), Iran Heavy (Iran), Basrah Medium (Iraq), Kuwait Export (Kuwait), Es Sider (Libya), Bonny Light (Nigeria), Arab Light (Saudi Arabia), Murban (UAE), and Merey (Venezuela).

Several factors are pushing this price upward. U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela have curtailed oil supply, tightening the market. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook for March 2025, these production declines will likely drive Brent crude prices from $70 to $75 per barrel by the third quarter of 2025.

Additionally, global oil inventories are expected to drop in the second quarter of 2025, intensifying price pressure. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a significant 40.5 million barrel draw in January 2025, with non-OECD stocks, especially in China, falling sharply.

However, the oil market remains unstable. Proposed U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico, effective April 1, 2025, could disrupt oil flows and prices, given their large role in U.S. crude imports. Meanwhile, non-OPEC+ production is projected to increase by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2025, led by the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, potentially easing some supply constraints.

The IEA cautions that if OPEC+ unwinds production cuts without tackling overproduction, a surplus of 600,000 barrels per day could emerge in 2025, possibly limiting further price rises. Despite the gradual increase, volatility continues to shape the oil market’s outlook.