Nigeria’s agricultural sector expanded by 3.79% in the third quarter of 2025, defying a widening wave of violent insurgency across the country’s food belt. This real-term growth marks a significant rebound, rising 1.23 percentage points from the same period in 2024 and outperforming the previous quarter’s 2.82% expansion.
The sector, comprising Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry, and Fishing, recorded a massive quarter-on-quarter surge of 32.87%, likely driven by seasonal harvests. However, its total contribution to real aggregate GDP dipped slightly to 31.21%, down from the third quarter of 2024, though it remains significantly higher than the 26.17% recorded in Q2 2025.
This economic resilience comes against a backdrop of escalating terror that has turned farmlands into killing fields. In July 2025 alone, seven farmers were kidnapped in Ondo State, eventually paying ₦5 million in ransom to secure their release.
The violence facing producers has metastasized beyond the traditional conflict zones, with a resurgence of insurgent raids in September leaving five farmers dead. By November 2025, the attacks had intensified, targeting both civilians and security personnel protecting the agrarian north.
A bloody week in November 2025 highlighted the crisis:
- Zamfara: 64 civilians abducted in Tsafe.
- Kebbi: 25 females and a principal taken; the Vice Principal was killed.
- Borno: A Brigadier General, three soldiers, and eight Civilian JTF members killed.
- Kwara: 38 worshippers abducted.
- Sokoto: 15 abducted and two killed.
- Yobe: One police officer killed.
Structural Risks Remain
Analysts note that while the data shows headline growth, the underlying security architecture is fracturing. The horrific kidnapping of nearly 400 people in Kaduna earlier in March, including 287 schoolchildren, remains a grim reminder of the volatility plaguing the Northwest region.
Despite the bandit gangs and the resurgence of farmer-herder conflicts, the sector’s ability to post nearly 4% growth suggests that the harvest-season output may be masking the long-term displacement of farmers. Therefore the sustainability of this growth remains in question.
