Nigeria’s naira reached a five-month peak at ₦1,514.86 per dollar last week, marking its strongest performance since March when it closed at ₦1,512.30. The currency’s impressive rally from ₦1,526.09 at the start of September demonstrates renewed investor confidence in Africa’s largest economy.
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s interventions, coupled with increased portfolio flows, has been instrumental in driving this momentum. Traders expect the naira to maintain stability within the ₦1,520-1,550 range in the coming week, supported by sustained dollar inflows and modest external reserve improvements.
However, speculative demand and global oil price volatility could limit further gains. The upcoming OPEC+ meeting will be crucial, as any production adjustments could significantly impact Nigeria’s external earnings and foreign exchange dynamics.
Across West Africa, currency stability appears to be the dominant theme. Ghana’s cedi is expected to remain steady at around 11.95 per dollar, benefiting from easing corporate dollar demand and robust inflows from the agriculture and mining sectors. Ghana’s central bank has been proactive in meeting forward auction bids, providing additional market confidence.
Kenya’s shilling continues its year-long stability trend, trading at 128.90-129.40 per dollar with little change expected.
In East Africa, the picture is more mixed. Uganda’s shilling is extending gains to 3,515-3,525 per dollar, buoyed by strong coffee exports and remittance inflows. The currency has appreciated approximately 4% year-to-date.
Conversely, Zambia’s kwacha faces headwinds, weakening to 23.82 per dollar as foreign currency supply constraints persist, leaving demand consistently outpacing availability.
The regional currency landscape reflects varying economic fundamentals, with commodity exporters and countries with strong central bank interventions showing greater resilience against dollar strength.
