FCMB Group forecasts ₦39.53 billion profit before tax for Q2 2025 amidst challenging economic landscape.

Nigeria’s FCMB Group has projected a profit before tax of ₦39.53 billion for the second quarter of 2025, reflecting the group’s efforts to navigate a volatile economic environment through strategic initiatives and operational efficiency.

In a forecast submitted to the Nigerian Exchange Group, the Lagos-listed lender expects profit before tax to rise to ₦39.53 billion ($25.7 million) for the three months ending June 30, 2025, compared to ₦31.15 billion in the same period last year. Gross earnings are projected to hit ₦239.39 billion, representing a 19% increase from ₦201.12 billion in Q2 2024.

The upbeat outlook comes despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, with Nigeria’s economy facing persistently high inflation, a volatile foreign exchange market, and elevated borrowing costs following a series of interest rate hikes by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
FCMB, one of Nigeria’s smaller but increasingly diversified financial groups, attributes the expected earnings uplift to improved trading income, a modest recovery in fees and commissions, and cautious loan book growth. Non-interest income — which includes fees from digital payments, asset management, and investment banking, is forecast to grow by 16% to ₦72.4 billion, while net interest income — the spread between lending and deposit rates — is seen rising 18% to ₦123.6 billion.

However, the bank’s forecasts also reflect rising operating costs, with total expenses expected to climb by 17% to ₦130.7 billion, driven largely by higher personnel costs and regulatory charges. Nigeria’s banking sector has faced mounting pressure from higher contributions to the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) and rising compliance costs linked to new digital banking regulations.

Optimism Amid Economic Challenges

In a sign of cautious asset quality management, FCMB anticipates a moderate increase in impairments, with loan loss provisions expected to rise to ₦22.6 billion from ₦19.8 billion in Q2 2024. This reflects the fragile state of Nigeria’s economy, where elevated inflation and currency depreciation have placed fresh pressure on corporate borrowers’ repayment capacity.

Despite these pressures, FCMB expects to maintain a cost-to-income ratio of around 64%, highlighting ongoing investments in technology and process automation to drive operational efficiency. The group also projects a stable capital adequacy ratio, underscoring its relatively conservative approach to balance sheet expansion.

Analysts say the lender’s cautious optimism reflects both the resilience and risks facing Nigeria’s banking sector in 2025. “Nigerian banks are walking a tightrope this year,” said a Lagos-based banking analyst. “While elevated interest rates provide a boost to net interest margins, weak consumer purchasing power, fragile business confidence, and regulatory pressures could quickly erode those gains.”

FCMB shares held steady at ₦6.35 in Wednesday trading, with the forecast offering investors a degree of reassurance after a period of heightened volatility across Nigeria’s banking sector. Peers such as Fidelity Bank and Sterling Financial Holdings have also issued relatively upbeat guidance for 2025, reflecting the benefit of higher yields on loans and fixed-income investments. However, the NGX Banking Index remains down 9% year-to-date, with concerns lingering over rising impairments, regulatory levies, and the broader impact of currency volatility and weak consumer demand on loan book quality.

About FCMB Group.

FCMB Group Plc is a leading financial services provider in Nigeria, with operations spanning commercial banking, investment banking, asset management, and financial advisory. Established in 1982 as First City Merchant Bank, the group has evolved into a diversified institution catering to individuals, businesses, and government entities. FCMB’s commercial banking division remains its largest segment, serving millions of retail and corporate customers through an extensive branch network and digital banking platforms. The group is listed on the Nigerian Exchange Group and continues to focus on innovation, financial inclusion, and sustainable growth in Nigeria’s evolving economic landscape.

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