Nigeria’s average retail price for petrol fell by 11.18% year-over-year in October 2025, providing a significant, if possibly fleeting, moment of relief for consumers.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Petrol Price Watch for October 2025 confirmed the average price dropped to N1,052.31 per litre, down from N1,184.83 in October 2024. Despite the annual decline in the petrol price, the month-on-month data signaled a fresh cost increase, rising by 8.42% from N970.59 recorded in September.
The price drop varied significantly across Nigeria, underscoring persistent distribution and cost issues in the downstream petroleum sector. Kogi State recorded the nation’s highest average retail price at N1,110.00, closely followed by Sokoto and Borno at N1,105.93 and N1,101.63, respectively. Conversely, Oyo, Nasarawa, and Abia states offered the lowest prices, registering at N1,001.79, N1,009.38, and N1,012.50.
Analyzing prices by region shows the North-East Zone paid the most expensive average price at N1,072.74, while the South-West Zone enjoyed the lowest rate at N1,032.81 per litre. The data further revealed a high and steady demand for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), with the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) reporting that daily petrol consumption rose to an average of 56.74 million litres in October.
The market relief comes against a volatile backdrop of policy shifts targeting fuel imports and domestic refining. In a move that signaled an expected price hike, President Bola Tinubu approved a 15% ad-valorem import duty on diesel and petrol in a letter dated October 21, 2025. This approval immediately sparked fears among experts that the duty’s implementation could increase the pump price of petrol by approximately N99.72 per litre.
The NMDPRA later announced the suspension of the proposed duty on PMS and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), reassuring Nigerians of sufficient product supply during the peak season. The authority’s decision aligned with the perspective of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which had publicly backed the duty as a “necessary measure to protect local refiners and curb the dumping of imported products.” The refinery, which stated it is currently loading about 45 million litres of petrol and 25 million litres of diesel daily, claimed it has sufficient capacity to meet national demand, working with regulatory agencies to ensure nationwide distribution.
