The political crisis in Rivers State is rooted in a bitter power struggle between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor and political benefactor, Nyesom Wike, who now serves as Minister of the Federal Capital Territory. Initially handpicked by Wike to succeed him, Fubara soon began asserting his independence, leading to a dramatic fallout between the two. Tensions escalated in late 2023 when the Rivers State House of Assembly, widely seen as loyal to Wike, launched impeachment proceedings against Governor Fubara. In response, a section of the Assembly complex was set on fire, and a factional split emerged among lawmakers. Despite several interventions, including one brokered by President Tinubu in December 2023, the conflict persisted, paralysing governance in the state. The crisis has not only deepened political divisions but has also undermined security and public administration, culminating in the President’s decision to declare a state of emergency.
Heightened Risk to Oil Infrastructure as Political Crisis Deepens in Rivers State
The declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State has far-reaching implications for the security of oil infrastructure, particularly pipelines and export terminals that are critical to Nigeria’s economy. The explosion of a crude oil export pipeline in Rumuekpe, occurring amid political unrest and shortly after threats from regional groups like the Ijaw National Congress, highlights how political instability can embolden non-state actors and escalate sabotage risks. Rivers State, a major hub of Nigeria’s oil production and export, now faces heightened vulnerability to attacks on infrastructure, either as acts of political protest, criminal enterprise, or ethnic agitation. With the paralysis of local governance and security apparatus due to the political crisis, militant groups, oil thieves, and disgruntled factions may find more opportunities to operate with impunity. The appointment of Retired Admiral Ibok-Ete Ekwe Ibas as Administrator signals an intent to reassert federal control, but the militarisation of governance may also inflame local tensions if not carefully managed. Overall, the crisis threatens to disrupt oil production and export schedules, jeopardise investor confidence, and worsen revenue shortfalls for the federal government already grappling with fiscal pressures.
