Nigeria’s oil revenue tumbled by 21.82 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching ₦3,908.50 billion, well below the prorated quarterly budget target of about ₦4,999.08 billion.
This drop also trails the ₦4,623.12 billion earned in Q3 2024 by ₦714.61 billion (15.46 percent), even though it marks a 107.23 percent rise over the ₦1,886.11 billion posted in Q4 2023.
On the positive side, Royalties (Oil & Gas) delivered ₦2,184.64 billion, overshooting its target (₦1,605.90 billion) by ₦578.73 billion (36.04 percent).
Concessional Rentals reached ₦5.59 billion—156.15 percent above budgeted ₦2.18 billion—and Miscellaneous Revenues (pipeline fees, etc.) tallied ₦8.79 billion, beating the ₦4.02 billion projection by 118.48 percent.
Despite having no prior projection, Gas Flared Penalty and Exchange Gain realized ₦108.54 billion and ₦1,221.49 billion respectively in Q4 2024.
These windfalls helped cushion some of the decline from underperforming segments, though they are non-recurring and hard to depend on.
Crude Oil and Gas Sales brought in ₦335.69 billion, missing the ₦366.09 billion target by ₦30.40 billion (8.30 percent).
Most stark was Petroleum Profit & Gas Taxes, which fetched ₦1,249.68 billion against a ₦2,994.62 billion benchmark—a shortfall of ₦1,744.95 billion (58.27 percent).
Meanwhile, Incidental Oil Revenue (Royalty Recovery & Marginal Field) yielded ₦15.57 billion—₦10.69 billion below its ₦26.25 billion goal (40.70 percent deficit).
This 22 percent slide in oil revenue raises alarm bells about Nigeria’s fiscal stability, given heavy reliance on oil proceeds to meet budget obligations.
Although gains in non-oil revenue are promising, the volatility of oil returns undermines long-term predictability.
In Q4 2024, non-oil revenue ballooned to ₦4,387.93 billion—62.39 percent above the ₦2,700 billion target—propelled by Company Income Tax (CIT) of ₦1.5 trillion, VAT of ₦194 billion, and Customs receipts of ₦837.38 billion.
Each of those exceeded their respective projections by 79.79 percent, 96.94 percent, and 16.75 percent—a performance bright spot amid oil sector disappointments.
Outlook
The federal government remains cautiously optimistic that reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), enhanced security in the Niger Delta, and stricter oversight of oil production can steady future revenue flows.
Yet, absent structural changes and greater diversification, Nigeria’s budget will remain vulnerable to swings in global oil prices and internal inefficiencies.
