Nigeria’s FX Reforms Face Setback as Parallel Market Divergence Resurfaces- Fitch Report

Nigeria’s pursuit of foreign exchange (FX) reforms has encountered a significant challenge as the gap between official and parallel market exchange rates re-emerges, signaling slower-than-anticipated progress in addressing FX pressures.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had embarked on a series of policy adjustments aimed at fostering a more transparent and efficient FX market. These included the unification of exchange rates and the introduction of an electronic matching platform for all FX transactions earlier this month. While these measures were designed to bolster investor confidence and reduce economic distortions, the recent widening of the rate gap suggests lingering structural issues.

Analysts point to policy execution and communication gaps as key factors undermining the effectiveness of these reforms. The CBN’s efforts to stabilize the market have yet to fully address long-standing inefficiencies, leaving room for speculative activities and continued pressure on the naira in the parallel market.

Despite these setbacks, Nigeria has made notable strides in strengthening its external financial buffers. Gross reserves climbed to $40.2 billion in November, supported by a mix of higher current-account surpluses, international bond issuances, and disbursements from global financial institutions. However, the persistent FX market divergence threatens to erode these gains by discouraging foreign investment and fueling market uncertainty.

Fitch Ratings, which has been monitoring Nigeria’s economic policies, highlights the importance of sustained and transparent reforms to achieve long-term stability. The re-emergence of the FX divergence underscores the complexity of the challenges Nigeria faces in aligning its official and market-driven currency mechanisms.

For Nigeria to regain momentum in its FX reform agenda, clearer communication and more decisive policy actions will be crucial. Without these, the country’s progress toward economic stabilization and a robust credit profile may stall.