Afreximbank has projected that Nigeria’s economic growth will accelerate from 3.0% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025, supported by increased fuel production at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and macroeconomic reforms. The Bank further anticipates that real GDP growth will average 4.0% annually between 2025 and 2029.
This was revealed in a research publication released by the bank on Wednesday titled “Nigeria’s 2025 country profile”, announced on X (Formerly Twitter).
According to the bank, the projected momentum is due to enhanced household purchasing power, easing inflation, and greater exchange rate stability, which will boost private consumption.
Afreximbank highlighted that reforms are gaining traction, led by policy changes like the fuel subsidy removal, FX liberalization, and the CBN’s bank recapitalization policy. “The increase in capital requirements by the CBN announced in March 2024 has strengthened the resilience of the financial sector, fostered consolidation, and created opportunities for growth,” the bank stated.
The bank appraised the naira’s outlook, stating, “Inflation will moderate, facilitated by statistical base effects and greater exchange rate stability.”
According to the bank, Nigeria’s geographic position offers businesses unrivaled access to West African markets, making it a key gateway for regional trade and investment. Rising consumer demand and capital inflows will drive up imports of raw materials and machinery, boosting trade volumes.
The bank also projects an expansion in Nigeria’s manufacturing and industrial construction sector, especially in export processing zones (EPZs) managed by NEPZA, supported by incentives like tax breaks and capital repatriation rights.
According to the bank, Nigeria’s pharmaceutical sector also shows strong potential, buoyed by a $1 billion Afreximbank-backed healthcare initiative fostering over 70 new manufacturing firms.
With fuel output from Dangote’s refinery expected to surpass domestic demand, Nigeria is set to become a net fuel exporter for the first time. This shift will reduce import dependence and support export growth, strengthening the country’s current account balance.25
