The Nigerian naira faces limited chances of major gains before Christmas, as top economist Bismarck Rewane stresses stability over quick appreciation amid festive demand pressures.
In a Channels TV interview, the Financial Derivatives Company CEO described the currency as fairly priced and even undervalued near current levels.
Bismarck Rewane sees little room for the naira to strengthen sharply before Christmas. He explains that real gains require dollar supply to far exceed demand, a condition not met right now.
“The only thing that will make the Naira gain value is if the supply of dollars is far in excess of the demand for dollars,” Rewane stated directly. Rapid appreciation looks unlikely in the near term, though outright collapse remains off the table.
The naira traded steady in the parallel market on November 19, 2025, with black market rates holding around ₦1,455 buying and ₦1,465 selling per dollar in major cities like Lagos and Abuja. Minor dips occurred over the prior three to four days, but the total drop stayed small, near ₦70-₦80 overall.
Rewane noted: “The Naira had fallen for about three, four consecutive days in the parallel market, but it’s not the question of the trend, what’s the magnitude of the fall? The total reduction was about almost ₦708.” Traders view the currency as fairly priced, with levels up to ₦1,500 still acceptable and no cause for alarm.
Why the Naira Remains Fairly Priced and Undervalued
Economic fundamentals flash amber warnings but avoid red alerts, supporting Rewane’s view of the naira as undervalued. Cocoa prices, a key non-oil export, sit about 50% below last year’s levels at roughly $5,700 per ton.
Oil prices hover near $64 per barrel for Brent crude, down from recent highs, while LNG stays flat. “The fundamentals are not threatening, but they are already blinking. There are some amber lights blinking there,” Rewane warned. As long as rates avoid crossing ₦1,500, the naira holds fair value in his assessment.
Triggers Needed for Excess Dollar Supply
Rewane put it bluntly: “If interest rates in Nigeria fall precipitously, we are going to be seeing that will weaken the Naira because our foreign portfolio investment flows will reduce.” Policymakers face tough choices to build surplus dollars without sparking other issues.
High interest rates must stay to attract foreign portfolio inflows, or sudden cuts could weaken the currency further. Protecting local refining through measures like the 15% import levy on refined products cuts dollar demand for fuel imports.
Dangote Refinery Delivers Fuel Stability This Christmas
Dangote Refinery offers major relief with steady petrol supply and potential price drops ahead. High-quality fuel flows ample from now through January 2026, ending queue worries for the holidays.
Rewane assured: “One is that the quality of the petrol produced at the Dangote refinery is of highest standards. Two, there’ll be ample supply from now till January 2026. And three, that the price will not increase. If anything, I think there may be another price reduction.” Recent gantry cuts to around ₦828 per litre underpin this outlook.
The 15% Petrol Import Levy Dilemma
Enforcing the 15% levy on imported refined products shields Dangote and eases naira pressure by curbing dollar outflows. Yet it risks short-term pump price hikes if imports stay cheaper without it.
“You can’t eat your cake and have it,” Rewane said, highlighting the trade-off. Around 20 ships wait to discharge products, but local refining must lead for long-term currency health.
Christmas Food Prices Ease Amid Stable Naira
Food staples show welcome declines, boosting holiday budgets despite income challenges. A 50kg bag of rice holds steady near ₦70,000, helped by India lifting export bans, and should stay below ₦75,000 even during peak season.
Rewane highlighted: “Rice still constant at ₦70,000… We do not expect the price of rice to increase for more than ₦75,000 throughout, even during the Christmas season. Beans is flat at ₦65,000, and tomatoes is down sharply to ₦65,000.” Purchasing power remains the real hurdle for many families.
The naira ends 2025 on a stable note rather than dramatic strength, giving Nigerians predictable exchange rates and cheaper fuel plus food for Christmas. Policy caution will decide if gains follow in 2026.
