The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a fresh warning that the world economy, while showing resilience to U.S. tariffs, could face significant headwinds in the months ahead as the delayed impact of protectionist trade policies begins to take hold.
In its latest outlook, the IMF projected global growth at 3.2% for 2025, slightly higher than earlier estimates, with the United States expected to grow by 2.0% and the United Kingdom by 1.3%, placing Britain among the stronger economies in the G7.
However, the Fund cautioned that this short-term stability may be misleading. Many companies have accelerated imports before the tariffs fully set in, creating a temporary boost that could fade as costs rise.
“Resilience has not yet been fully tested,” the IMF noted, warning that the global economy could lose up to 1.8 percentage points of growth by 2027 if trade frictions deepen.
Tariff and Inflation Pressures
Analysts believe the full effects of the U.S. tariffs — introduced under President Donald Trump’s administration — are only beginning to emerge.
Rising import costs could soon push consumer prices higher, especially in North America and parts of Europe.
The IMF said the coming year will be crucial in determining whether these policies permanently reshape global trade or trigger broader economic instability.
Global Outlook Remains Fragile
While growth projections have improved, the Fund’s tone remained cautious. It emphasized that geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and renewed trade rivalries could still unsettle financial markets and slow recovery momentum.
The organization also warned that “uncertainty is now the new normal,” urging governments to prioritize cooperation, investment, and fiscal stability to cushion economies from external shocks.
