Afrinvest’s 12 January 2026 stock recommendation table provides a valuation-driven snapshot of where opportunities and risks currently sit on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).
For investors navigating a market shaped by elevated interest rates, selective earnings growth, and sector-specific headwinds, the table highlights why names such as Zenith Bank, Access Holdings, Airtel Africa, and Seplat Energy continue to attract positive conviction.
This analysis distils the key investment signals, sector themes, and valuation anomalies embedded in the table, and explains what they mean for institutional and sophisticated retail investors positioning portfolios for 2026.
Big Picture: Selectivity, Not Broad Market Exposure
Afrinvest’s recommendations reinforce a clear message: 2026 is not a buy-the-market year. Instead, the strategy favours specific names and balance-sheet strength.
The table tilts decisively toward:
Banks such as Zenith Bank, Access Holdings, GTCO, and UBA, where earnings resilience and capital buffers remain intact
Telecoms, led by Airtel Africa, benefiting from pricing power and structural data growth
Energy stocks, including Seplat Energy and selectively TotalEnergies Nigeria, where cash-flow visibility is clearer
A cautious stance on consumer goods and industrials, notably BUA Foods and Dangote Cement, where margin pressure persists
Across sectors, BUY and ACCUMULATE ratings dominate financials and oil & gas, while SELL and REDUCE calls cluster around consumer staples and cement producers.
Banking: The Core of the 2026 Equity Case
Banking remains the most conviction-heavy sector in Afrinvest’s outlook.
Tier-1 lenders such as Zenith Bank, Access Holdings, GTCO, and UBA continue to anchor the bullish case.
Why banks still work
Single-digit to low-teens trailing P/E ratios across Zenith Bank, Access Holdings, and UBA
Forward P/E compression, indicating earnings growth is expected to outpace share-price appreciation
Attractive dividend yields, with Zenith Bank and GTCO offering some of the most consistent cash returns on the NGX
Investor takeaway
Afrinvest’s positioning suggests banks still offer the best risk-adjusted returns in early 2026. The mix of BUY and ACCUMULATE ratings implies upside will be realised steadily rather than through sharp re-ratings.
Consumer Goods: Why BUA Foods and Dangote Sugar Remain Under Pressure
The consumer goods sector is where Afrinvest is most cautious.
Stocks such as BUA Foods, Dangote Sugar, and Nestlé Nigeria dominate the SELL and HOLD categories.
Key signals
Elevated trailing and forward P/E multiples, particularly in BUA Foods
Weak or flat year-to-date returns, despite nominal revenue growth
Limited dividend support relative to valuation
What’s holding the sector back
Persistent input-cost inflation
FX-related margin compression
Weak real household purchasing power
Investor takeaway
Afrinvest’s stance implies consumer stocks are long-duration recovery plays, not near-term alpha generators. A meaningful re-rating likely depends on margin normalisation rather than revenue growth alone.
Telecommunications: Airtel Africa as a Structural Winner
Telecoms emerge as one of the clearest stand-out sectors in the table, led overwhelmingly by Airtel Africa.
Why Airtel Africa stands out
One of the largest 12-month upside projections in Afrinvest’s coverage
Strong and recurring free cash-flow generation
Structural tailwinds from data growth and pricing resets
Even with higher valuation multiples than banks, Afrinvest’s BUY positioning reflects confidence that Airtel Africa’s earnings momentum and balance-sheet strength justify the premium.
Investor takeaway
For investors seeking growth with defensive characteristics, Airtel Africa remains a cornerstone allocation for 2026.
Industrials & Cement: Dangote Cement Seen as Fully Priced
Industrial stocks — particularly cement producers — are largely marked SELL or HOLD.
Dangote Cement and BUA Cement face:
High trailing valuation multiples
Slower construction demand
Rising energy and logistics costs
Investor takeaway
Afrinvest appears to view cement stocks as fully priced, with limited upside unless macro conditions and energy costs improve materially.
Oil & Gas: Seplat Energy Leads Selective Optimism
The oil & gas segment shows a mix of BUY, ACCUMULATE, HOLD, and UR (Under Review) ratings.
Seplat Energy stands out among upstream-linked names due to its cash-flow visibility, disciplined capital allocation, and gas exposure, while TotalEnergies Nigeria reflects downstream defensiveness.
What this means
Investors are encouraged to focus on company-specific fundamentals, not oil prices alone
Balance-sheet strength and dividend sustainability matter more than crude price narratives
Investor takeaway
Energy remains investible in 2026 — but only for investors willing to differentiate between Seplat-style cash generators and more speculative plays.
Insurance & Power: Tactical, Not Core Allocations
Insurance stocks such as AIICO and Mansard are mostly rated ACCUMULATE or SELL, while power utilities remain under review.
This reflects thin liquidity, regulatory uncertainty, and slower earnings transmission. These sectors are positioned as opportunistic trades, not portfolio anchors.
What Investors Should Do With This Table
Afrinvest’s January 2026 recommendations point to three clear rules:
Anchor portfolios in banks and telecoms, notably Zenith Bank, Access Holdings, and Airtel Africa.
Underweight consumer goods and cement, including BUA Foods and Dangote Cement, until margin dynamics improve.
Be selective in oil & gas, with preference for cash-generative names such as Seplat Energy.
Overall, the table reinforces a disciplined, valuation-aware strategy — prioritising cash returns, earnings durability, and realistic upside over speculative re-rating stories.
