NBS Report Claims 2 Million Kidnappings, Making Nigeria’s Kidnap and Murder Rates the World’s Highest, Presidential Spokesman Praises Report

The Crime Experience and Security Perception Survey (CESPS) 2024, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), has made staggering claims about crime in Nigeria. According to the report, 1% of Nigerians—approximately 2 million people—were kidnapped in the past year, placing Nigeria at the top of global kidnapping statistics.

The survey also claims a national murder rate of 270 per 100,000 people, nearly three times higher than El Salvador’s 90 per 100,000, which is currently the highest globally.

The report estimates that Nigerian households experienced 51.9 million crime incidents over the past year, with rural areas slightly more affected than urban ones. Despite this alarming figure, only 25.7% of these crimes were reported to the police, with distrust in law enforcement cited as a major reason. The survey also highlights that ₦2.23 trillion in ransoms was paid within the year, a figure that adds to its already extraordinary findings.

Mainstream media outlets have largely reported these numbers without scrutiny. For instance, Premium Times reported that nearly 700,000 Nigerians were killed in one year, while ThisDay columnist Olusegun Adeniyi highlighted the growth of a “multitrillion-naira ransom industry” on the basis of the NBS figures. The Daily Trust splashed the findings on its front page, focusing on the 26.53 million households affected by crime and the massive ransom payments. None of these outlets questioned the plausibility of the numbers. The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) also wrote a story citing NBS figures.

The claim that 2 million Nigerians were kidnapped within a year is particularly difficult to accept. Such a figure would make Nigeria the undisputed global hotspot for kidnappings, surpassing regions with chronic instability and widespread abductions.

The NBS report also estimates that there were over 614,937 murders in Nigeria last year, a figure that translates to a staggering murder rate of 270 per 100,000 people. This rate diverges significantly from global benchmarks and should prompt questions about the report’s methodology. To put it in stark terms, the NBS murder rate for Nigeria is five times higher than that of Jamaica, which had the highest reported murder rate globally in 2022.

Exhibiting a tendency toward propaganda, a government spokesperson hailed the report as proof of the Tinubu administration’s commitment to tackling crime and embracing data-driven governance. In a statement yesterday, Daniel Bwala, Special Adviser on Policy Communications, described the groundbreaking report as a significant departure from conjecture-based policymaking.

This response leaves the government in a very difficult position. It must now contend with the implication that its spokesman prematurely praised a report claiming Nigeria has the highest kidnap rate in the world. Critics might argue that this blunder reflects a broader tendency within the administration to spin facts or outright misrepresent its performance.

The report’s reliance on extrapolations from household surveys appears to have produced exaggerated estimates. These inflated figures risk undermining the credibility of official statistics and could misdirect resources and policies intended to address Nigeria’s real security challenges. If the NBS attempts to revise the figures, it risks being accused of yielding to pressure from an embarrassed federal government to downplay crime statistics in Nigeria.

The uncritical amplification of these claims by major newspapers underscores the need for deeper media scrutiny of public data. Without a rigorous review of the methodology and findings, reports like these could distort public discourse and misguide policymaking, leaving the actual security challenges unaddressed.