Violent Conflict in Nigeria: An Analysis of President Tinubu’s First Year in Office

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s first year in office, from May 29, 2023, to May 29, 2024, has been marked by significant violent conflict across Nigeria. Data from Nextier’s Nigeria Violent Conflicts Database reveals complex patterns of violence with various conflict types and regional disparities.

This report examines the types, frequencies, and impacts of these conflicts, comparing them with the previous year to provide insights into trends and regional differences.

Across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, various forms of violent conflict were recorded. The total number of incidents stood at 1,095, resulting in 3,959 casualties and 2,691 kidnapping victims.

Key Statistics

In the past year, Nigeria experienced:

• Total Incidents: 1,095
• Total Casualties: 3,959 (comprising 3,444 deaths and 515 injuries)
• Kidnapping Victims: 2,691

These figures represent a decline in incidents and casualties compared to the previous year (May 29, 2022, to May 28, 2023), which recorded:

• 1,443 incidents
• 4,877 casualties
• 2,650 kidnapping victims

Comparison with Previous Year

Metric	2022-2023	2023-2024	Change
Incidents	1,443	1,095	-24%
Casualties	4,877	3,959	-19%
Kidnapping Victims	2,650	2,691	+2%

Regional Breakdown

The violent conflicts were not evenly distributed across Nigeria’s regions. Here are the key statistics for each region:

• North West: 1,661 incidents, 757 casualties, and 346 kidnapping victims
• North Central: 1,227 incidents, 1,516 casualties, and 270 kidnapping victims
• North East: 479 incidents, 135 casualties, and 109 kidnapping victims

Other regions also faced significant violence but to a lesser extent:

• South East: 140 incidents, 139 casualties, and 104 kidnapping victims
• South South: 241 incidents, 60 casualties, and 143 kidnapping victims
• South West: 211 incidents, 84 casualties, and 123 kidnapping victims

Region	Incidents	Casualties	Kidnapping Victims
North West	1,661	757	346
North Central	1,227	1,516	270
North East	479	135	109
South East	140	139	104
South South	241	60	143
South West	211	84	123

Conflict Types

The conflicts were categorised into several types, each with distinct characteristics:

• Banditry: The most prevalent type, with 308 incidents, 1,678 casualties, and 1,860 kidnapping victims.
• Gunmen Attacks: These accounted for 357 incidents, 618 casualties, and 654 kidnapping victims.
• Farmer-Herder Conflicts: Resulted in 95 incidents and 677 casualties but only 5 kidnapping victims.
• Cult Clashes: Less frequent but still notable with 73 incidents and 157 casualties.
• Kidnapping: Specifically classified incidents numbered 64, resulting in 68 casualties and 103 kidnapping victims.
• Terrorism: Caused by groups like Boko Haram and ISWAP, leading to 56 incidents, 357 casualties, and 60 kidnapping victims.

Conflict Type	Incidents	Casualties	Kidnapping Victims
Banditry	308	1,678	1,860
Gunmen Attacks	357	618	654
Farmer-Herder Conflicts	95	677	5
Cult Clashes	73	157	0
Kidnapping	64	68	103
Terrorism	56	357	60

Most Affected States and Local Government Areas (LGAs)

Top 10 States by Incidents:

1. Ogun
2. FCT (Federal Capital Territory)
3. Katsina
4. Rivers
5. Imo
6. Borno
7. Zamfara
8. Benue
9. Kaduna
10. Plateau

Top 10 States by Casualties:

1. Rivers
2. Niger
3. Bauchi
4. Sokoto
5. Katsina
6. Borno
7. Kaduna
8. Benue
9. Zamfara
10. Plateau

Top 10 LGAs by Incidents:

1. Ukum (Benue)
2. Abuja Municipal (FCT)
3. Kajuru (Kaduna)
4. Ningi (Bauchi)
5. Chikun (Kaduna)
6. Barkin Ladi (Plateau)
7. Bwari (FCT)
8. Birnin Gwari (Kaduna)
9. Bokkos (Plateau)
10. Mangu (Plateau)

Top 10 LGAs by Casualties:

1. Tsafe (Zamfara)
2. Kukawa (Borno)
3. Birnin Gwari (Kaduna)
4. Igabi (Kaduna)
5. Ukum (Benue)
6. Wase (Plateau)
7. Barkin Ladi (Plateau)
8. Maru (Zamfara)
9. Bokkos (Plateau)
10. Mangu (Plateau)

Top 10 LGAs by Kidnapping Victims:

1. Anka (Zamfara)
2. Mafa (Borno)
3. Talata Mafara (Zamfara)
4. Sabuwa (Katsina)
5. Batsari (Katsina)
6. Kachia (Kaduna)
7. Bwari (FCT)
8. Munya (Niger)
9. Kajuru (Kaduna)
10. Chikun (Kaduna)

Comparative Analysis by Conflict Type

Banditry:

• Incidents: 308 (down from 447)
• Casualties: 1,678 (down from 1,792)
• Kidnapping Victims: 1,860 (down from 1,972)

Farmer-Herder Conflicts:

• Incidents: 95 (up from 77)
• Casualties: 677 (up from 559)
• Kidnapping Victims: 5 (up from 2)

Gunmen Attacks:

• Incidents: 357 (down from 407)
• Casualties: 618 (down from 498)
• Kidnapping Victims: 654 (down from 488)

Kidnapping:

• Incidents: 64 (slightly down from 66)
• Casualties: 68 (slightly down from 78)
• Kidnapping Victims: 103 (up from 81)

Cult Clashes:

• Incidents: 73 (down from 90)
• Casualties: 157 (down from 187)

Terrorism:

• Incidents: 56 (down from 87)
• Casualties: 357 (down from 1,102)
• Kidnapping Victims: 60 (down from 92)

President Tinubu’s first year in office saw a notable reduction in overall violent incidents and casualties, although kidnapping incidents slightly increased. The persistence of regional conflicts, especially in the North West and North Central regions, highlights the need for targeted interventions. Addressing the diverse and complex nature of these conflicts remains a significant challenge for the administration, requiring comprehensive strategies that consider the specific dynamics of each region.

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