Trump’s Tariff Pause Attributed to Canadian Bond Plot in Viral Post—Evidence Says Otherwise

A rumour circulating widely on WhatsApp this week claimed that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had orchestrated a secretive plan with allies in Japan and Germany to undermine Donald Trump by manipulating the US bond market. But an examination of official data shows no evidence to support the claims.

The false narrative, which gained traction across various WhatsApp groups and private chats, alleged that Trudeau had led a coalition of foreign governments to quietly accumulate US treasuries and then offload them in a coordinated fashion to destabilize the US economy and force the former president to shift policy.

A version of the story was published by Canadian blogger Dean Blundell on April 10 under the headline: “Carney’s Checkmate: How Canada’s Quiet Bond Play Forced Trump to Drop Tariffs.” The post credited former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney with masterminding a “slow bleed” of US Treasury bonds—alongside Japan and the EU—that supposedly compelled Trump to order a 90-day pause on tariffs. “A complete turnaround from the chest-thumping of the past week,” the post claimed, citing Trump’s decision to soften tariff threats on Canada while ramping up duties on China.

The article’s narrative was widely amplified on social media, particularly among users critical of Trump, and appears to have been shared extensively on WhatsApp by individuals who accepted it at face value. The posts sparked polarized debates in group chats across pro- and anti-Trump lines, according to Ghanaian analyst Bright Simons, who first drew attention to the trend in a LinkedIn post on Saturday.

Simons, a researcher and social innovator, described being pulled into several heated discussions on the messaging platform. “Something seemed off and I said so to a couple of friends,” he wrote. “But it was only after I couldn’t make headway explaining my own analytical bias that I actually went to look at the data.”

His findings directly contradict the claims at the heart of the viral post.

Firstly, Canada’s official holdings of US federal debt stood at less than $50bn—far below the $400bn figure cited in the rumour. Moreover, the bulk of this is held by the Bank of Canada, an independent central bank, not the government. The remainder is owned by private Canadian investors.

Secondly, there is no evidence of any recent “coordinated dumping” of US treasuries by Canada. On the contrary, recent activity suggests that Canadian authorities have sought to increase their US dollar holdings by issuing USD-denominated debt. The trend in Canadian purchases of US bonds has been relatively stable since early 2024.

Official figures from the Department of Finance Canada and international reserves data support these conclusions. “The whole tale is off,” Simons noted, linking to Canada’s reserves data and purchase trends. He wrote , “The trends in Canadian purchases of US treasuries? Steady and unremarkable. You can see the official reserves data for yourself here”.

The episode has raised broader concerns about the way social media fuels the spread of politically charged disinformation. “What I find fascinating,” Simons added, “is how so few bother to check the data even though it takes all but 10 seconds to do so. A lot of the debate is driven by analytical biases—even by people removed from the politics of it all.”

Simons said the virality of the rumour revealed the extent to which digital platforms can amplify confirmation bias. “Something about social media wants us to push our bias rather than to learn,” he concluded.

Despite the story being easily debunked, its traction online underscores the ongoing challenge of navigating politically sensitive misinformation in an age of hyper-personalised, low-friction communication.

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