Trump’s Tariff Gambit: A 90-Day Pause and a 125% Blow to China

On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump turned the U.S.-China trade war on its head by announcing a 90-day tariff pause for the majority of trading nations while pummeling China with a 125% retaliatory tariff. The bold bet cuts tariffs to a flat 10% for over 75 countries for the reprieve period, creating a jarring contrast with the punitive tariff against Beijing. It’s a strategic move to isolate China, bless non-retaliatory nations, and redefine international trade as tensions escalate.

The Escalating U.S.-China Trade War

The trade war, fueled once more by Trump’s January 2025 return to power, has intensified in the past few weeks. China’s 84% duty on American products this month was a reaction to Trump’s earlier “reciprocal” duties, which had already pushed Chinese import duties over 100%. The freshly imposed 125% tariff, Trump argues, is a reaction to Beijing’s “lack of respect” for fair trade, targeting such issues as theft of intellectual property and market imbalance. But the provocation risks opening up a wider economic chasm between the two powers, and with profound implications for the world.

A 90-Day Pause for Allies

The tariff truce brings relief to non-hit nations, after a volatile week of market sell-offs and recession fears. Described as a window for “bespoke” trade deals, the policy has encouraged hopes from allies including Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam to sit down to negotiate. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent referred to it as a step toward long-term trade stability, and one that left a market reaction thundering in its wake—the Dow rose nearly 3,000 points, and the S&P 500 posted a historic rally.

Domestic Economic Impacts

For U.S. consumers and businesses, it is a mixed bag. The 125% tariff against China could push the prices of the staples like antibiotics and smartphones higher, in which Chinese companies hold sway over supply chains. The relief, though, dampens the effect from other imports, perhaps leaving costs constant in the short term. Economists differ: some praise Trump’s aggressive line as a demonstration of American strength, but others warn of recession danger if the line backfires.