Cautionary Tale for Nigerian Schools: US University Records 1,026 Coronavirus Infections in a Week

As Nigeria is set to reopen schools, there is a debate on the wisdom of the decision considering that Nigeria is not yet at a stage where we can declare the new coronavirus pandemic under control. While some welcome the decision to reopen schools in order to end the disruption to the education of millions of Nigerian students, others think it will only lead to an automatic spike in coronavirus infections, thereby squandering whatever progress the country has made in the past few months.

The experience of other countries seems to support the sceptics. In May, Israel suffered a massive surge after reopening schools, with daily cases rising from 5 to 2,300. In the United States, the University of South Carolina recorded 1,026 cases in one week. The surge was credited, in part, to the flouting of social distancing rules by the students who were reported to have spent the time throwing Greek house parties and having pool hangouts while refusing to wear masks. According to the Chief of the Columbia Fire Department, Aubrey Jenkins, there was a high level of irresponsibility among the students, noting a pool party that had over a hundred people cramped in the pool area.  “Nobody was practicing social distancing. Nobody was wearing a mask. But there was lots of drinking going on.” Perhaps a highlight of the puerility was when one of the students said to Jenkins, “I can’t catch COVID. I’m immune to the stuff.”

While one might expect a lot more cautiousness from a country with 6.3 million infections and 191,000 deaths, the lack of it speaks to the danger of trusting students with taking necessary precautions to curtail the pandemic. Fearing a fate similar to the University of South Carolina, students in the University of Iowa protested the school’s decision to continue in-person classes by calling in sick at the same time.

As more American schools grapple with the question of whether to remain on-line or resume in-person, the fear of the virus looms over these discussions.  Many Americans think it is just better to wait for a virus rather than reopen and risk a surge in infections. But this is itself is not so straightforward. The Centre for Disease Control has announced a possible commencement of vaccination in late October or early November. But many believe that this is conveniently timed to coincide with the presidential elections scheduled for November 3, so would prove more to be a political vaccine against voting President Trump out of office that could actually strengthen the coronavirus. According to an Arizona epidemiologist, Saskia Popescu, the sudden rush in the wake of approaching election date poses a danger to society, warning against the “politicization of public health and the potential safety ramifications.”

In Nigeria, many state governments are looking to get students back to work. Lagos State is expected to re-open tertiary institutions on September 14, 2020, while primary and secondary schools are scheduled to unlock their gates on September 21. But safety remains a concern. Does Nigeria have the capacity to manage a spike such as seen in the University of South Carolina? With a very low testing rate, it is unlikely the health sector can handle the pressure.

Teachers are hardly supportive. Professor Ade Adejumo of the Academy Staff Union of Universities [ASUU] called the reopening of schools an “open invitation to the tragic explosion of the scourge on a scale never witnessed anywhere since its outbreak!” In a similar vein, Haruna Danjuma, Chairman of National Parent Teacher Association of Nigeria [NAPTAN], expressed concern. He said, “Will they be able to maintain physical distancing or the students would be jam-packed in a place? There has to be a proper plan by the government to assure parents that their children would be safe.”

Even the Federal Government appears nervous about individual states moving to reopen schools. Boss Mustapha, Chairman of the Presidential Task Force [PTF] on COVID-19 said that “everyone must stay the course and stick with the winning strategy which is anchored on the ability of health institutions to contain the virus.” He noted the instances of cases in Germany, France and the United Kingdom as cautionary tales.

In a country where dilapidated classrooms sometimes have up to 100 students, the possibility of meaningful containment is impossible even if students are to behave responsibly. Nigeria does not seem capable of designing and observing the protocols implemented in more developed parts of the world where rigorous testing, hand washing facilities and repurposed facilities to aid social distancing have accompanied the reopening of schools. But the epidemiology of the coronavirus is also partly a science of trial and error – Nigerian schools may reopen without the country seeing a spike in infections.