On Sunday, the 6th of June, the Niger Republic closed its airspace in response to ECOWAS’ ultimatum to reinstate Bazoum or face the possibility of a military intervention which the coup leaders declined. What are the implications of this move?
First of all, detours have become longer. Before the Niger situation, there were disruptions in a cluster of African airspaces such as Libya and Sudan that have resulted in certain flights taking detours of up to 1,000 kilometres. The closure of the Nigerien airspace, “widens the area over which most commercial flights between Europe and southern Africa cannot fly,” as noted by the tracking service, FlightRadar24.
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As an effect, Air France announced on Monday that it had put a temporary halt to its flights connecting Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso and Bamako in Mali until August 11. A spokesperson further mentioned that Air France anticipated extended durations for flights departing from sub-Saharan hub airports. Noting that flights linking Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris to Accra in Ghana are projected to operate non-stop in the coming days.
British Newspaper, Daily Mail reported this morning that a British Airways flight with over 500 passengers en route to the UK from Johannesburg had to be diverted due to the closure. It was noted that the closure had affected and disrupted a significant number of British-bound flights from British Airways to Virgin Atlantic.
Representatives from Lufthansa and Brussels Airlines noted to Reuters that the altered flight routes might result in an increase of between 90 minutes to 3 hours 30 minutes in travel time. And this was observed as a Virgin Atlantic flight from Johannesburg this morning arrived at London Heathrow 3 hours 50 minutes after its scheduled arrival time.
Although the detours appear to be the primary issue arising from the closure, the establishment of a no-flight zone carries the potential to heighten tensions between Nigeria, a central figure in ECOWAS pressures, and the Niger Republic. The military junta on Friday, the 4th of August announced that they were cutting off ties with France, the United States, and Nigeria. And with Nigeria leading the charge for a possible military intervention in the country, tensions are high.
The most logical rationale behind the airspace closure is the prevention of air attacks by ECOWAS’ forces considering Nigeria has one of the most advanced Air Force in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, is the order sufficient enough to restrain the Nigerian Airforce? While the Nigeriens’ air defence system might be lacking in effectiveness, they still possess the capability to mount a defence.
Although they don’t have the most advanced arsenal, the Nigerien military does have access to several retrograde military weapons that have seen active use in battles. In fact, it is reported that the country spent about $1 billion on its military between 2011 and 2019. And some of its military hardware include the Mi-171Sh and MI-35s assault helicopters.
Adding to the complexity of defying Niger’s no-flight zone order is the existence of Niger Air Base 201.
As it stands right now, the largest drone base in the world is located in Niger Republic, and it is operated by the US Air Force. However, Niger Air Base 201 is owned by the Nigerien military despite the presence of 800 US Airmen in the base. With the present faceoff between the Nigerien military and the American Government, it is yet to be seen if the Nigeriens would oust the US Airforce from its territory.
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If the US Air Force were to be removed, a range of potential scenarios could emerge. One such scenario involves a recurrence of the events seen in Afghanistan, where the US military withdrew, resulting in the abandonment of over $7 billion worth of military equipment that fell into the hands of the Taliban. The other possibility is a total relocation of all of the US’ equipment, logistics, and manpower from the country.
If the US leaves its equipment behind, as done in Afghanistan, it may further prop up the Nigerien military to defend itself against external threats.
