Oil Prices Surge Amid U.S.–Iran Nuclear Talks and OPEC Supply Shifts

Crude oil prices climbed on Tuesday, with Brent crude up 0.57% to $64.92 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advancing 0.55% to $61.50 per barrel.

The uptick in oil prices was initially driven by a U.S. announcement granting tariff exemptions on technology products like smartphones and computers, signaling a potential boost to global trade and oil demand.

However, U.S. President Donald Trump quickly contradicted these reports on Sunday via Truth Social, declaring that no countries, particularly China, would escape accountability for “unfair Trade Balances” and “Non-Monetary Tariff Barriers.”

This tariff confusion reignited fears of weakened global demand, as escalating trade tensions could hinder economic growth and curb oil demand worldwide.

Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported a production drop of 78,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March, bringing its crude oil output to 26.776 million bpd, tightening supply and bolstering prices.

The broader OPEC+ alliance, encompassing non-OPEC producers, also reported a reduced output by 37,000 bpd to 41.02 million bpd during the same period, further supporting the upward pressure on oil prices.

Despite these cuts, OPEC+ confirmed its commitment to increase supply starting in May, a move that could ease current constraints and impact future price trends.

In its latest monthly oil market report, OPEC slashed its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast on Monday, marking the first revision since December, now projecting a rise of 1.30 million bpd in 2025 and 1.28 million bpd in 2026.

These forecasts, each reduced by 150,000 bpd from prior estimates, reflect weaker first-quarter data and the looming effects of U.S.-imposed trade tariffs, according to the organization.

Concurrently, the ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations are under intense scrutiny, as their outcome could alter U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and reshape global supply dynamics.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that the next round of talks with the U.S. is scheduled for Saturday in Muscat, Oman, following recent discussions.

President Trump, speaking to reporters on Monday, expressed confidence in resolving the nuclear issue, calling it “almost an easy one” to address.

Yet, he criticized the timing of the upcoming meeting, noting the “long time” until Saturday and accusing Iran of deliberately stalling the negotiation process.

As oil markets grapple with tariff disputes, OPEC production adjustments, and geopolitical uncertainties, traders anticipate continued price volatility in the near term.

Subscribe to Notifications