Oil Prices Stabilize as OPEC+ Production Quota Decision Nears, Saudi Arabia Regains Market Share

Oil prices stabilized near their lowest levels since early June 2025, with Brent crude trading below $67 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) near $65. Investors are closely watching the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, where the alliance is expected to implement a significant production quota increase.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Saudi Arabia, are poised to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly supply hike, with further increases anticipated in the coming months.

Saudi Arabia, a key OPEC+ member, boosted its crude production to 9.08 million barrels per day (mbpd) in May, up from 8.97 mbpd in April. This strategic move underscores the kingdom’s efforts to reclaim its oil market share in a competitive global landscape.

Last quarter, oil prices experienced significant volatility, dropping nearly 10% amid geopolitical and trade-related developments. April saw a sharp decline following President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, while June prices surged after Israel’s attack on Iran, only to retreat as tensions eased.

The market’s focus has now shifted back to supply and demand fundamentals, with OPEC+ production decisions and potential trade deals driving near-term price movements.

Higher import tariffs, set to resume on July 9 for major U.S. trading partners, could further influence global oil demand.

Negotiations to finalize trade agreements post-July 4 holiday are ongoing, but challenges persist with countries like Japan. Trump’s threats of fresh levies, citing Japan’s reluctance to accept U.S. rice imports, add uncertainty to the global trade landscape.

Increased OPEC+ production and potential trade disruptions are critical factors influencing oil market trends. As supply quotas rise, the balance between production and demand will shape oil prices in the months ahead.