Trump Takes Lead Over Harris as US Election Nears, NYT/Siena Polls Show

Published by

Moyin Arowolo

Trump Takes Lead Over Harris as US Election Nears, NYT/Siena Polls Show

The New York Times/Siena College recently took a poll on the US presidential election.

The result of the poll shows a competitive race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

The surveys show Trump with a slight edge nationwide, leading Harris by a single percentage point, 48% to 47%, which is within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting a virtual tie in overall voter support.

Also Read:

This race is notably tight in key battleground states, with Harris and Trump each holding advantages in different regions, reflecting the complexities of voter preferences across the country

National and Regional Polling Insights

The poll, conducted from September 3 to 6 among 1,695 voters, found Harris leading Trump in several northern battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, while the two candidates are locked in close contests in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.

In the Sun Belt states, the poll shows Harris leading Trump by five percentage points in Arizona and holding a narrow edge in North Carolina.

Trump, however, is ahead in Georgia and Nevada. The candidates are statistically tied with 48% of the vote when these four crucial states are taken into account together.

The polling results show that Harris is enjoying a surge in support from Democratic voters, a sentiment that started to develop after her July campaign launch and was reinforced by last month’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

Demographic and Issue-Based Divides

The US poll reveals sharp demographic divides between the candidates. The level of support that Black and Latino voters have shown for Harris has greatly increased over that of President Biden before his withdrawal from the race.

She commands 84% of the black vote and 54% of the Latino vote across the Sun Belt states.

In contrast, Trump’s support is solid among white voters, especially those without a college degree, highlighting the deep-rooted racial and educational divides that are shaping the current political landscape.

Since Harris and Trump each have advantages in particular areas, this race is extremely close in crucial battleground states, reflecting the diversity of voter preferences across the nation.

The candidates are also nearly tied in terms of voter perceptions of who would best handle the most important issues facing the country.

Trump holds a slight advantage on the economy and immigration—topics that many voters rank as top priorities. However, Harris is seen more favorably among voters concerned with social issues and healthcare.

Character was a major factor for many convincing but undecided voters, and Mr. Trump may find it difficult to win them over.

Approximately 33% of these voters expressed worries about Mr. Trump’s demeanour and character, and 9% more expressed worries about his morality and honesty.

A little over 7% of voters who declared they were unsure or that they might still change their mind expressed worries about Mr. Trump’s possible threat to democracy.

With only 43 days until the US election, the race is reaching a fever pitch, and every vote will count as both candidates vie to secure crucial support in these battleground states.

Moyin Arowolo

Moyinoluwa Arowolo studied Communication and Media Studies at Ajayi Crowther University. Before joining Arbiterz, she worked at radio and television stations such as Unilag FM and Trybe TV. She has experience in radio production, television production, digital marketing, and social media management.