Nigeria’s National Orientation Agency (NOA) has publicly stated that the country’s debt burden has “significantly decreased” under President Bola Tinubu’s tenure, directly challenging more pessimistic readings of recent data.
According to NOA, as of June 2023, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at $113.42 billion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio below 40 percent, a level viewed as sustainable by both the IMF and World Bank.
By December 2024, the NOA claims, the debt declined to $94.22 billion, amounting to a reduction of over $19 billion in just 18 months.
The agency attributes this drop to deliberate repayment strategies and tightened borrowing restraint.
Yet the DMO tells a different short-term story. Its October 2025 report places Nigeria’s total public debt at N152.39 trillion as of June 30, 2025, a N3 trillion increase from N149.39 trillion in March 2025 (a 2.01 percent rise).
In dollar terms, public debt jumped from $97.24 billion to $99.66 billion over the same quarter, marking a 2.49 percent increase.
The conflicting figures raise interpretive challenges. NOA’s claim hinges on reductions from mid-2023 to end-2024, while DMO’s numbers highlight more recent short-term upticks. Currency fluctuations, revaluations, and exchange-rate effects likely contribute to the gap in narratives.
Debt servicing burden easing — but still heavy
NOA underscores progress in lowering debt servicing pressure. Before Tinubu, in early 2023, roughly 97 percent of federal revenue was consumed by debt payments, leaving scant room for other obligations.
By end-2024, that ratio had improved to 68 percent, and by Q2 2025, it had dipped to less than 50 percent.
While still high, the trend suggests improved fiscal room for government programs.
To back the narrative, NOA notes that Tinubu’s government repaid a $3.26 billion IMF loan in under two years, and spent around $7 billion on external debt servicing within his first 18 months in office.
Non-oil revenue, growth, and economic risks
NOA admits that the debt challenge is far from over, citing Nigeria’s persistent overreliance on oil revenue as a structural vulnerability.
To address this, the government has undertaken revenue diversification efforts. NOA claims non-oil revenue rose by 30 percent in H1 2024 versus the same period in 2023.
It also notes that the Nigeria Customs Service collected N1.3 trillion in Q1 2025 — more than double the N600 billion collected in Q1 2023.
NOA points to a World Bank projection of 3.7 percent GDP growth in 2024, framing it as the strongest expansion in nearly a decade (excluding post-pandemic recovery).
The agency further emphasizes government investment in infrastructure, agriculture, digital innovation, and support for small businesses as pillars of sustainable diversification.
Outlook
NOA’s narrative positions Tinubu’s administration as restoring fiscal discipline, lowering debt burdens, and easing the chokehold of debt servicing. The metrics on servicing ratio and non-oil revenue are compelling if accurate. Yet the DMO’s more recent data remind us that debt trends are dynamic, not unilinear declines.
Any claim of debt “success” must be measured against exchange rate risk, global interest rates, commodity shocks, and Nigeria’s capacity to sustain non-oil revenue growth.