Naira Rate Converges at 1,535/$ in Both Official and Black Markets, Ahead of CBN’s MPC meeting

The naira on Friday traded at N1,535 to the dollar in both the official and parallel (black) markets, signaling a momentary convergence that reflects improving market confidence.

According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the official rate appreciated slightly from Thursday’s N1,536/$1, aligning perfectly with the rate on the black market.

Intra-day trading data from the CBN website revealed the naira moved between N1,528/$1 and N1,536/$1, underscoring relative stability.

This is a positive sign that recent monetary reforms are gaining traction, helping to narrow the historically wide gap between market segments.

Supporting this trend is the steady rise in Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves, which climbed to $37.78 billion, up 0.37% from $37.6 billion.

This reserve growth enhances the apex bank’s capacity to intervene in the FX market, sustain import cover, and meet external obligations.

Market watchers suggest it may also influence CBN’s position at the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for July 21–22, 2025.

Adding to the macroeconomic tailwinds, inflation data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows headline inflation eased to 22.22% in June 2025 from 22.97% in May.

On a year-on-year basis, inflation has slowed significantly from 34.19% in June 2024, marking an 11.97 percentage point decline.

However, the month-on-month inflation rate rose slightly to 1.68%, indicating that while annual inflation is cooling, short-term price pressures persist.

The average Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the 12 months ending June 2025 also dropped to 26.58%, down from 30.00% the year before.

The July MPC meeting will likely weigh these converging FX rates, rising reserves, and inflation dynamics in deciding the Monetary Policy Rate, which currently stands at 27.5%. All eyes will be on the CBN as it balances rate stability with ongoing currency and inflation management.

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