Kemi Badenoch must deliver at the polls or risk being forced out of office – Tory frontbenchers

Kemi Badenoch, who assumed leadership of the Conservative Party (Tory Party) 100 days ago, is under pressure to significantly boost the party’s performance by May 2026, according to several Tory frontbenchers (senior party members who hold ministerial positions). Tory frontbenchers are warning that Kemi must deliver at the polls or risk being forced out of office.

Leadership Scrutiny

Since taking over from Robert Jenrick last November after a historic electoral defeat in July, Kemi Badenoch has seen the Conservative Party’s popularity drop from 26% to 22% in polls, placing them third behind Labour and Reform UK led by Nigel Farage. This decline has raised concerns among Conservative MPs about her visibility, pace, and morale within the party.

Upcoming Elections

The local elections on May 1 this year are expected to be challenging, with the Conservatives defending 991 council seats. However, the real test, as per Tory insiders, will be the Scottish and Welsh elections in May 2026. Poor performance here could jeopardize Kemi Badenoch’s position, with one frontbencher warning of a potential fifth-place finish in either contest.

Party Morale and Fundraising

Morale at the party headquarters is reportedly low, exacerbated by an exodus of senior staff post-election. Kemi Badenoch’s leadership style has been criticized, particularly after a staff pep talk was perceived more as a scolding than motivation. Fundraising is another area of concern; despite raising £3.2 million in the third quarter of 2024, there are worries about the charm offensive needed for major donors, whom some officials feel are being neglected.

Policy and Public Perception

Kemi Badenoch has been cautious about setting out a clear policy agenda for the next general election, focusing instead on specific issues like migrant nationality curbs. Public perception, according to a recent YouGov poll, is mixed, with 56% of Tory voters approving of her job but only 48% seeing her as prime ministerial material.

Historical Context and Future Challenges

The Conservative Party has a history of leadership changes following electoral setbacks, but the threshold for a no-confidence vote has been raised to deter frequent leadership challenges. Despite this, some MPs reminisce about the leadership of Boris Johnson, suggesting a potential return if Badenoch fails to turn around the party’s fortunes.

Her leadership is at a pivotal moment. With local elections looming and more significant contests on the horizon, her ability to rally the party and the public will be under intense scrutiny. As Tory co-chair Nigel Huddleston puts it, renewing the party is a marathon, not a sprint, but the clock is ticking for Badenoch to prove her mettle.

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