Africa’s wealthiest man, Aliko Dangote, has issued a sell signal to the Nigerian foreign exchange market on dollar holdings.
“If I had dollars today, I would rather sell them than wait for the next month or so. Without my refinery, you would have ended up buying dollars at a ridiculous rate. Today, it is at N1,500 a major gain,” Dangote stated at a global press conference in Lagos.
His statement hinges on the economic impact of his Petroleum refinery, which is set to fundamentally shift Nigeria’s Foreign exchange market dynamics.
Dangote’s view aligns with recent trends, as the Naira has shown resilience. The naira is currently trading at its peak this year at N1,421.73 per dollar as at 31st October 31, 2025, a huge gain from the ₦1548.83 per dollar recorded at the start of this year.
Dangote’s advice carries weight beyond mere speculation. “My refinery ensured the dollar rate dropped and our FX reserves grew. I can assure you that within one or two months, with government support for the downstream sector through new policies, the dollar rate will improve significantly,” he emphasized.
The Dangote Refinery, which began production of diesel and aviation fuel in January 2024, immediately began curbing the demand for imported petroleum products. This sharp reduction in the need for dollars to fund the multi-billion-dollar monthly import bill has substantially eased pressure on the foreign exchange market.
The facility, with its $650,000$ barrels per day (bpd) capacity, is projected to meet all of Nigeria’s refined product needs and produce a surplus for export, making the country a net exporter. The businessman isn’t stopping at current capacity. Dangote announced plans to expand his refinery’s capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day within three years, which would make it the world’s largest refinery upon completion.
The correlation between refinery operations and foreign exchange stability is striking. External reserves has been on steady rise, hitting $43.173 billion as of 30th October 2025, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), adding about $2.3 billion from the $40.877 billon recorded as at 1st of January 2024.
This strengthening of the FX reserves provides crucial stability, validating the direct link between domestic refining and economic recovery.
President Bola Tinubu’s administration has also thrown its weight behind local refining. The president approved a 15 percent import duty on diesel and petrol in October 2025, aimed at protecting local refineries from cheaper imported products. and stabilizing the downstream market.
Dangote’s directive to sell dollars assumes that refinery output strongly support FX reserve gains, and protectionist policy will shift market sentiment.
Still, as things stand, Nigeria’s macro trajectory supports a stronger naira, vindicating his call.